ProbaPredict

Derby County FC crest Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC Stoke City FC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Derby County FC 0–1 Stoke City FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Stoke City FC a 29% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 8% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Derby County FC 44% · Draw 27% · Stoke City FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.44–1.10. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Derby County vs Stoke pre-match preview

Derby County (23rd, 6 pts) host Stoke (6th, 19 pts) in the Championship. Derby County have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (LDDLL) and Stoke 10 points from 5 (LWWWD), so Stoke arrive in clearly better form. Derby County have not won in their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Derby County at 44% to Stoke's 29%. Expected goals are 1.44 for Derby County and 1.10 for Stoke, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 53%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Derby County won 1, Stoke won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC?

Derby County FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Stoke City FC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Derby County FC LDDLLL, Stoke City FC LWWWDW (latest first).

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Derby County FC44%
Draw27%
Stoke City FC29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Under 2.5 in 16 of 23 Stoke away games last season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals73%27%1.38
2.5 goals47%53%2.14
3.5 goals25%75%3.98

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Derby County FC score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Stoke City FC in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 6 Stoke away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes52%1.91
No48%2.10

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Derby County FC win44%2.26
Draw27%3.68
Stoke City FC win29%3.50
Over 2.547%2.14
Under 2.553%1.87

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Derby County FC goals (rows) × Stoke City FC goals (columns)
Derby \ Stoke012345
08%8%5%2%0%0%
111%13%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-011%
2-19%
0-08%
0-18%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Derby County and Stoke played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Derby County, last 5
  1. L 1–4 at QPR
  2. D 1–1 v Wrexham
  3. D 1–1 at Burnley
  4. L 1–2 v Birmingham
  5. L 0–1 v West Brom
Derby County, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v Wrexham
  2. L 1–2 v Birmingham
  3. L 0–1 v West Brom
  4. L 0–3 v Swansea
  5. D 2–2 v Cardiff
Stoke, last 5
  1. L 2–3 v Middlesbrough
  2. W 2–1 at Bolton
  3. W 2–1 v Sheffield Utd
  4. W 2–1 at Watford
  5. D 1–1 at Cardiff
Stoke, last 5 away
  1. W 2–1 at Bolton
  2. W 2–1 at Watford
  3. D 1–1 at Cardiff
  4. L 1–4 at Wolves
  5. L 1–3 at Southampton

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Derby County and Stoke.

How Derby County and Stoke compare this season

StatDerby County (home, 6)Stoke (away, 6)Championship average
Over 1.567% (4/6)83% (5/6)77%
Over 2.550% (3/6)67% (4/6)61%
Over 3.517% (1/6)33% (2/6)36%
BTTS50% (3/6)83% (5/6)64%
Win %0% (0/6)50% (3/6)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game0.671.331.44
Goals against per game1.671.671.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Derby County23611
Stoke61911

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Derby County 1 win, 1 draw, Stoke 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Mon, 6 Apr 2026ChampionshipDerby County v Stoke2–0
Sat, 9 Aug 2025ChampionshipStoke v Derby County3–1
Sat, 3 May 2025ChampionshipDerby County v Stoke0–0
Sat, 2 Nov 2024ChampionshipStoke v Derby County2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derby County v Stoke?
Our model makes Derby County the more likely winner at 44%: Derby County 44%, draw 27%, Stoke 29%. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby County v Stoke?
Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 16 of 23 Stoke away games last season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Derby County and Stoke played recently?
Latest first: Derby County LDDLL, Stoke LWWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall2Lincoln City FC crestLincoln City2U3.578%✕62%✕24%✓14%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓48%✓
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕