ProbaPredict

Bristol City FC crest Bristol City FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC Blackburn Rovers FC crest prediction

Championship · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Bristol City FC 0–1 Blackburn Rovers FC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Blackburn Rovers FC a 27% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 9% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Bristol City FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Bristol City FC 44% · Draw 29% · Blackburn Rovers FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.34–0.99. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bristol City vs Blackburn pre-match preview

Bristol City (16th, 14 pts) host Blackburn (10th, 15 pts) in the Championship. Bristol City have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWLLW) and Blackburn 7 points from 5 (WDWLL). Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Bristol City at 44% to Blackburn's 27%. Expected goals are 1.34 for Bristol City and 0.99 for Blackburn, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 59%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Bristol City won 2 and Blackburn won 2; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Bristol City FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC?

Bristol City FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Blackburn Rovers FC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Bristol City FC DWLLWW, Blackburn Rovers FC WDWLLD (latest first).

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Bristol City FC44%
Draw29%
Blackburn Rovers FC27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 59%; Over 2.5 is 41%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 6 Bristol City home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals68%32%1.47
2.5 goals41%59%2.43
3.5 goals21%79%4.83

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Bristol City FC score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and Blackburn Rovers FC in about 63%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 9 of 11 Blackburn games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.98
No49%2.02

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Bristol City FC win44%2.26
Draw29%3.49
Blackburn Rovers FC win27%3.68
Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bristol City FC goals (rows) × Blackburn Rovers FC goals (columns)
Bristol \ Blackburn012345
010%9%5%2%0%0%
113%13%6%2%1%0%
29%9%4%1%0%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-013%
0-010%
0-19%
2-09%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bristol City and Blackburn played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bristol City, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Charlton
  2. W 1–0 v Watford
  3. L 0–1 v Lincoln City
  4. L 1–4 at Southampton
  5. W 2–1 at Burnley
Bristol City, last 5 at home
  1. W 1–0 v Watford
  2. L 0–1 v Lincoln City
  3. W 2–1 v Portsmouth
  4. L 0–2 v Millwall
  5. W 2–0 v Stoke
Blackburn, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Cardiff
  2. D 2–2 at Portsmouth
  3. W 3–1 v Millwall
  4. L 1–2 v Sheffield Utd
  5. L 1–2 at Preston NE
Blackburn, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Portsmouth
  2. L 1–2 at Preston NE
  3. D 0–0 at Lincoln City
  4. D 2–2 at Wolves
  5. W 3–1 at Sheffield Utd

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Bristol City and Blackburn.

How Bristol City and Blackburn compare this season

StatBristol City (home, 6)Blackburn (away, 6)Championship average
Over 1.533% (2/6)67% (4/6)77%
Over 2.517% (1/6)67% (4/6)61%
Over 3.50% (0/6)50% (3/6)36%
BTTS17% (1/6)67% (4/6)64%
Win %33% (2/6)17% (1/6)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game0.501.331.44
Goals against per game1.001.501.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Bristol City161411
Blackburn101511

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bristol City 2 wins, 0 draws, Blackburn 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Tue, 24 Feb 2026ChampionshipBlackburn v Bristol City1–2
Tue, 4 Nov 2025ChampionshipBristol City v Blackburn0–1
Sat, 25 Jan 2025ChampionshipBristol City v Blackburn2–1
Sat, 14 Sept 2024ChampionshipBlackburn v Bristol City3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bristol City v Blackburn?
Our model makes Bristol City the more likely winner at 44%: Bristol City 44%, draw 29%, Blackburn 27%. Model expects 2.3 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bristol City v Blackburn?
Over 2.5 goals is 41% and under 2.5 is 59%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 5 of 6 Bristol City home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bristol City and Blackburn played recently?
Latest first: Bristol City DWLLW, Blackburn WDWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampCardiff City FC crestCardiffBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamO1.575%34%27%39%50%75%28%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampQueens Park Rangers FC crestQPRSwansea City AFC crestSwanseaU3.575%37%28%35%46%72%25%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokeBristol City FC crestBristol CityU3.578%40%29%31%42%69%22%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Tue, 13 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoRB Bragantino crestBragantino4Cruzeiro EC crestCruzeiro2U3.578%✕32%✓29%✕39%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓50%✓
FT · UCLRacing Club de Lens crestLens0Sporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CP2O1.581%✓36%✕25%✕40%✓59%✕81%✓37%✕57%✕
FT · EFL ChampWrexham AFC crestWrexham1West Bromwich Albion FC crestWest Brom2U3.576%✓44%✕28%✕28%✓46%✓72%✓24%✕52%✓
FT · EFL ChampWolverhampton Wanderers FC crestWolves1Bolton Wanderers FC crestBolton3O1.585%✓63%✕20%✕17%✓64%✓85%✓42%✓55%✓
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall0Swansea City AFC crestSwansea1U3.578%✓44%✕28%✕28%✓42%✕69%✕22%✕51%✕