ProbaPredict

Bristol City FC crest Bristol City FC vs Sheffield United FC Sheffield United FC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Bristol City FC 0–1 Sheffield United FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Sheffield United FC a 34% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 9% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Bristol City FC vs Sheffield United FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Bristol City FC 39% · Draw 27% · Sheffield United FC 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.28. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd pre-match preview

Bristol City (16th, 14 pts) host Sheffield Utd (11th, 15 pts) in the Championship. Bristol City have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDWLL) and Sheffield Utd 6 points from 5 (LWLLW). Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Bristol City 39%, Sheffield Utd 34%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Bristol City and 1.28 for Sheffield Utd, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Bristol City won 2, Sheffield Utd won 1 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Bristol City FC vs Sheffield United FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Bristol City FC 39%, Sheffield United FC 34%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Bristol City FC LDWLLW, Sheffield United FC LWLLWL (latest first).

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Bristol City FC39%
Draw27%
Sheffield United FC34%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 6 Bristol City home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals74%26%1.34
2.5 goals49%51%2.03
3.5 goals27%73%3.66

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Bristol City FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Sheffield United FC in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Sheffield Utd away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes53%1.87
No47%2.15

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Bristol City FC win39%2.59
Draw27%3.71
Sheffield United FC win34%2.91
Over 2.549%2.03
Under 2.551%1.97

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bristol City FC goals (rows) × Sheffield United FC goals (columns)
Bristol \ Sheffield012345
08%9%6%2%1%0%
19%13%8%3%1%0%
27%8%5%2%1%0%
33%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-09%
0-19%
2-18%
1-28%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bristol City and Sheffield Utd played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bristol City, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v Blackburn
  2. D 1–1 at Charlton
  3. W 1–0 v Watford
  4. L 0–1 v Lincoln City
  5. L 1–4 at Southampton
Bristol City, last 5 at home
  1. L 0–1 v Blackburn
  2. W 1–0 v Watford
  3. L 0–1 v Lincoln City
  4. W 2–1 v Portsmouth
  5. L 0–2 v Millwall
Sheffield Utd, last 5
  1. L 2–3 at Portsmouth
  2. W 3–0 v Lincoln City
  3. L 1–2 at Stoke
  4. L 0–1 v Wolves
  5. W 2–1 at Blackburn
Sheffield Utd, last 5 away
  1. L 2–3 at Portsmouth
  2. L 1–2 at Stoke
  3. W 2–1 at Blackburn
  4. D 2–2 at Cardiff
  5. D 0–0 at Swansea

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Bristol City and Sheffield Utd.

How Bristol City and Sheffield Utd compare this season

StatBristol City (home, 6)Sheffield Utd (away, 6)Championship average
Over 1.533% (2/6)67% (4/6)77%
Over 2.517% (1/6)67% (4/6)61%
Over 3.50% (0/6)33% (2/6)36%
BTTS17% (1/6)67% (4/6)64%
Win %33% (2/6)33% (2/6)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game0.501.331.44
Goals against per game1.001.331.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Bristol City161411
Sheffield Utd111511

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bristol City 2 wins, 1 draw, Sheffield Utd 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Mon, 6 Apr 2026ChampionshipBristol City v Sheffield Utd1–0
Sat, 9 Aug 2025ChampionshipSheffield Utd v Bristol City1–4
Tue, 11 Mar 2025ChampionshipSheffield Utd v Bristol City1–1
Tue, 5 Nov 2024ChampionshipBristol City v Sheffield Utd1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bristol City v Sheffield Utd?
Our model makes Bristol City the more likely winner at 39%: Bristol City 39%, draw 27%, Sheffield Utd 34%. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bristol City v Sheffield Utd?
Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 5 of 6 Bristol City home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bristol City and Sheffield Utd played recently?
Latest first: Bristol City LDWLL, Sheffield Utd LWLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampCardiff City FC crestCardiffBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamO1.575%34%27%39%50%75%28%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampQueens Park Rangers FC crestQPRSwansea City AFC crestSwanseaU3.575%37%28%35%46%72%25%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokeBristol City FC crestBristol CityU3.578%40%29%31%42%69%22%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall2Lincoln City FC crestLincoln City2U3.578%✕62%✕24%✓14%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓48%✓
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕