Birmingham City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Birmingham City FC 3–0 Queens Park Rangers FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Birmingham City FC a 50% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–0 a 5% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (50%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (53%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (75%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (75%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (50%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (72%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Birmingham City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Birmingham City FC 50% · Draw 26% · Queens Park Rangers FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.62–1.07. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Birmingham vs QPR pre-match preview

Birmingham (4th, 20 pts) host QPR (9th, 17 pts) in the Championship. Birmingham have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWDWL) and QPR 7 points from 5 (WDDDD). QPR: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Birmingham at 50% to QPR's 25%. Expected goals are 1.62 for Birmingham and 1.07 for QPR, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 50%, below the Championship rate of 61%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Championship match. In their last 4 meetings, Birmingham won 1, QPR won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Birmingham City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC?

Birmingham City FC are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a Queens Park Rangers FC win together still account for 50%. Recent form: Birmingham City FC WWDWLD, Queens Park Rangers FC WDDDDL (latest first).

Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Birmingham City FC

50%

Draw

26%

Queens Park Rangers FC

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Birmingham home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.33
2.5 goals	50%	50%	1.98
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.52

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Birmingham City FC score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Queens Park Rangers FC in about 66%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Birmingham home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.89
No	47%	2.13

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Birmingham City FC win	50%	2.00
Draw	26%	3.92
Queens Park Rangers FC win	25%	4.07
Over 2.5	50%	1.98
Under 2.5	50%	2.02

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Birmingham City FC goals (rows) × Queens Park Rangers FC goals (columns)
Birmingham \ Queens	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	11%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

11%

2-1

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Birmingham and QPR played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

QPR: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Birmingham: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have won each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Birmingham and QPR.

How Birmingham and QPR compare this season

Stat	Birmingham (home, 6)	QPR (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (6/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	83% (5/6)	50% (3/6)	61%
Over 3.5	67% (4/6)	17% (1/6)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.17	1.44
Goals against per game	1.17	1.17	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Birmingham	4	20	11
QPR	9	17	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Birmingham 1 win, 1 draw, QPR 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 11 Mar 2026	Championship	Birmingham v QPR	1–0
Tue, 9 Dec 2025	Championship	QPR v Birmingham	2–1
Fri, 29 Mar 2024	Championship	QPR v Birmingham	2–1
Fri, 22 Sept 2023	Championship	Birmingham v QPR	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Birmingham v QPR?: Our model makes Birmingham the more likely winner at 50%: Birmingham 50%, draw 26%, QPR 25%. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Birmingham v QPR?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Birmingham home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Birmingham and QPR played recently?: Latest first: Birmingham WWDWL, QPR WDDDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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