Norwich City FC vs Portsmouth FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Norwich City FC 0–1 Portsmouth FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Portsmouth FC a 23% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

1 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (53%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (77%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (81%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (58%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (65%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Norwich City FC vs Portsmouth FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Norwich City FC 53% · Draw 24% · Portsmouth FC 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.85–1.16. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Norwich vs Portsmouth pre-match preview

Norwich (21st, 9 pts) host Portsmouth (13th, 15 pts) in the Championship. Norwich have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLLLW) and Portsmouth 8 points from 5 (WLDDW). Norwich have lost each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Norwich at 53% to Portsmouth's 23%. Expected goals are 1.85 for Norwich and 1.16 for Portsmouth, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 55%, against 64% across the Championship. In their last 4 meetings, Norwich won 1, Portsmouth won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Norwich City FC vs Portsmouth FC?

Norwich City FC are clear favourites at 53%, with Portsmouth FC at 23%. Recent form: Norwich City FC LLLLWW, Portsmouth FC WLDDWL (latest first).

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Norwich City FC

53%

Draw

24%

Portsmouth FC

23%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Norwich games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.24
2.5 goals	58%	42%	1.73
3.5 goals	35%	65%	2.82

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Norwich City FC score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Portsmouth FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Norwich home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.22

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Norwich City FC win	53%	1.89
Draw	24%	4.26
Portsmouth FC win	23%	4.26
Over 2.5	58%	1.73
Under 2.5	42%	2.37

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Norwich City FC goals (rows) × Portsmouth FC goals (columns)
Norwich \ Portsmouth	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	9%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

1-0

2-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Norwich and Portsmouth played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Norwich, last 5

Norwich, last 5 at home

Portsmouth, last 5

Portsmouth, last 5 away

Current streaks

Norwich have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Norwich have not won in their last 5 league games.
Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Norwich and Portsmouth.

How Norwich and Portsmouth compare this season

Stat	Norwich (home, 6)	Portsmouth (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	67% (4/6)	50% (3/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	33% (2/6)	61%
Over 3.5	33% (2/6)	17% (1/6)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	50% (3/6)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.67	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.67	0.83	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Norwich	21	9	11
Portsmouth	13	15	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Norwich 1 win, 2 draws, Portsmouth 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 3 Apr 2026	Championship	Norwich v Portsmouth	1–1
Sat, 16 Aug 2025	Championship	Portsmouth v Norwich	1–2
Fri, 18 Apr 2025	Championship	Norwich v Portsmouth	3–5
Tue, 10 Dec 2024	Championship	Portsmouth v Norwich	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Norwich v Portsmouth?: Our model makes Norwich the more likely winner at 53%: Norwich 53%, draw 24%, Portsmouth 23%. Model expects 3.0 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Norwich v Portsmouth?: Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 Norwich games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Norwich and Portsmouth played recently?: Latest first: Norwich LLLLW, Portsmouth WLDDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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