AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio prediction

Serie A · Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Full-time: AC Monza 4–0 Cagliari Calcio (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave AC Monza a 38% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–0 a 1% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (38%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (71%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (56%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (77%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (72%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio prediction (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): AC Monza 38% · Draw 28% · Cagliari Calcio 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.26–1.19. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%).

Published Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Monza vs Cagliari pre-match preview

Monza (14th, 7 pts) host Cagliari (7th, 13 pts) in the Serie A. Monza have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Cagliari 10 points from 5 (DWWWL), so Cagliari arrive in clearly better form. Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Monza 38%, Cagliari 34%. Expected goals are 1.26 for Monza and 1.19 for Cagliari, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Monza won 1, Cagliari won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio?

This is close to a coin flip: AC Monza 38%, Cagliari Calcio 34%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: AC Monza LWLDLL, Cagliari Calcio DWWWLW (latest first).

Monza won 2 of 3 home games this season.

AC Monza

38%

Draw

28%

Cagliari Calcio

34%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Cagliari games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	71%	29%	1.41
2.5 goals	44%	56%	2.26
3.5 goals	23%	77%	4.31

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: AC Monza score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Cagliari Calcio in about 70%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 7 Monza games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.97
No	49%	2.03

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AC Monza win	38%	2.66
Draw	28%	3.55
Cagliari Calcio win	34%	2.93
Over 2.5	44%	2.26
Under 2.5	56%	1.80

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AC Monza goals (rows) × Cagliari Calcio goals (columns)
AC \ Cagliari	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

10%

0-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Monza and Cagliari played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Monza, last 5

Monza, last 5 at home

Cagliari, last 5

Cagliari, last 5 away

Current streaks

Monza: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Monza: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Monza and Cagliari.

How Monza and Cagliari compare this season

Stat	Monza (home, 3)	Cagliari (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	50% (2/4)	84%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	50% (2/4)	60%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	30%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	57%
Win %	67% (2/3)	75% (3/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	2.67	1.00	1.48
Goals against per game	1.33	1.25	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Monza	14	7	7
Cagliari	7	13	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Cagliari 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 30 Mar 2025	Serie A	Cagliari v Monza	3–0
Sun, 5 Jan 2025	Serie A	Monza v Cagliari	1–2
Sat, 16 Mar 2024	Serie A	Monza v Cagliari	1–0
Sun, 26 Nov 2023	Serie A	Cagliari v Monza	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Monza v Cagliari?: Our model makes Monza the more likely winner at 38%: Monza 38%, draw 28%, Cagliari 34%. Monza won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza v Cagliari?: Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Cagliari games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Monza and Cagliari played recently?: Latest first: Monza LWLDL, Cagliari DWWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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