Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid prediction

La Liga · Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Getafe CF 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 35% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 14% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick draw (35%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick under (50%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (77%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (91%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick no (55%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 0-0 (20%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (69%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid prediction (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Getafe CF 34% · Draw 35% · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%. Most likely score: 0-0. Expected goals 0.86–0.80. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 45%, No 55%. Most likely scores: 0-0 (20%), 1-0 (16%), 0-1 (15%).

Published Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano pre-match preview

Getafe (15th, 9 pts) host Rayo Vallecano (14th, 9 pts) in the La Liga. Getafe have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LWLDD) and Rayo Vallecano 7 points from 5 (DWLWL). Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Getafe 34%, Rayo Vallecano 31%. A draw is more likely than usual at 35%; 28% of La Liga matches end level. Expected goals are 0.86 for Getafe and 0.80 for Rayo Vallecano, and the most likely score is 0-0 (20%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 77%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Getafe didn't win any, Rayo Vallecano won 2 and 2 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid?

This is close to a coin flip: Getafe CF 34%, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 31%, with the draw at 35%. Recent form: Getafe CF LWLDDL, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid DWLWLD (latest first).

Rayo Vallecano lost 3 of 5 away games this season.

Getafe CF

34%

Draw

35%

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 77%; Over 2.5 is 23%.

Under 2.5 in all 5 Getafe home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	50%	50%	2.01
2.5 goals	23%	77%	4.32
3.5 goals	9%	91%	11.50

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 45% chance: Getafe CF score in about 58% of simulated outcomes and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid in about 55%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 1.7 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	45%	2.22
No	55%	1.82

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Getafe CF win	34%	2.95
Draw	35%	2.82
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win	31%	3.26
Over 2.5	23%	4.32
Under 2.5	77%	1.30

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 1.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Getafe CF goals (rows) × Rayo Vallecano de Madrid goals (columns)
Getafe \ Rayo	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	20%	15%	6%	2%	0%	0%
1	16%	14%	5%	1%	0%	0%
2	7%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%
3	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-0

20%

1-0

16%

0-1

15%

1-1

14%

2-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Getafe and Rayo Vallecano played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Getafe, last 5

Getafe, last 5 at home

Rayo Vallecano, last 5

Rayo Vallecano, last 5 away

Current streaks

Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league games.
Rayo Vallecano: both teams scored in each of their last 9 league games.
Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Getafe and Rayo Vallecano.

How Getafe and Rayo Vallecano compare this season

Stat	Getafe (home, 5)	Rayo Vallecano (away, 5)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	76%
Over 2.5	0% (0/5)	60% (3/5)	56%
Over 3.5	0% (0/5)	40% (2/5)	39%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	60%
Win %	40% (2/5)	0% (0/5)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.20	1.54
Goals against per game	0.60	2.60	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Getafe	15	9	9
Rayo Vallecano	14	9	8

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Getafe 0 wins, 2 draws, Rayo Vallecano 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 3 May 2026	La Liga	Getafe v Rayo Vallecano	0–2
Fri, 2 Jan 2026	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Getafe	1–1
Fri, 2 May 2025	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Getafe	1–0
Sat, 24 Aug 2024	La Liga	Getafe v Rayo Vallecano	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?: Our model makes Getafe the more likely winner at 34%: Getafe 34%, draw 35%, Rayo Vallecano 31%. Rayo Vallecano lost 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Getafe v Rayo Vallecano?: Over 2.5 goals is 23% and under 2.5 is 77%, with expected goals of 1.7. Under 2.5 in all 5 Getafe home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-0 at 20%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Getafe and Rayo Vallecano played recently?: Latest first: Getafe LWLDD, Rayo Vallecano DWLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovElche	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaSantandervEspanyol	O1.583%	41%	24%	35%	83%	61%	39%	58%	61%	83%	39%	58%
17:30 · La LigaLa LigaValenciavVillarreal	O1.579%	30%	25%	44%	79%	55%	33%	56%	55%	79%	33%	56%
20:00 · La LigaLa LigaAtletivDeportivo	O1.581%	69%	19%	12%	81%	59%	36%	53%	59%	81%	36%	53%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaCeltavReal Betis	O1.577%	38%	26%	35%	77%	53%	30%	55%	53%	77%	30%	55%

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