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Sporting Clube de Braga crest Sporting Clube de Braga vs Gil Vicente FC Gil Vicente FC crest prediction

Primeira Liga · Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK

Full-time: Sporting Clube de Braga 1–2 Gil Vicente FC (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Gil Vicente FC a 19% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–2 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Sporting Clube de Braga vs Gil Vicente FC prediction (Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK): Sporting Clube de Braga 55% · Draw 26% · Gil Vicente FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.59–0.84. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Braga vs Gil Vicente pre-match preview

Braga (9th, 11 pts) host Gil Vicente (6th, 14 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Braga have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LDWLW) and Gil Vicente 5 points from 5 (WDLLD). Gil Vicente are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Braga clear favourites at 55%, with Gil Vicente at 19%. Expected goals are 1.59 for Braga and 0.84 for Gil Vicente, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 56% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Braga won 1, Gil Vicente won 2 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Sporting Clube de Braga vs Gil Vicente FC?

Sporting Clube de Braga are clear favourites at 55%, with Gil Vicente FC at 19%. Recent form: Sporting Clube de Braga LDWLWW, Gil Vicente FC WDLLDW (latest first).

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Sporting Clube de Braga55%
Draw26%
Gil Vicente FC19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Under 2.5 in 6 of 8 Gil Vicente games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.42
2.5 goals44%56%2.28
3.5 goals23%77%4.38

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: Sporting Clube de Braga score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Gil Vicente FC in about 57%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.07
No52%1.94

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Sporting Clube de Braga win55%1.83
Draw26%3.86
Gil Vicente FC win19%5.17
Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sporting Clube de Braga goals (rows) × Gil Vicente FC goals (columns)
Sporting \ Gil012345
09%7%3%1%0%0%
114%12%5%1%0%0%
211%9%4%1%0%0%
36%5%2%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-014%
1-112%
2-011%
2-19%
0-09%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Braga and Gil Vicente played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Braga, last 5
  1. L 1–3 v Sporting CP
  2. D 0–0 at Santa Clara
  3. W 1–0 v Estoril Praia
  4. L 1–2 at Amadora
  5. W 2–1 at Alverca
Braga, last 5 at home
  1. L 1–3 v Sporting CP
  2. W 1–0 v Estoril Praia
  3. W 1–0 v Vitória
  4. D 2–2 v Amadora
  5. D 1–1 v Estoril Praia
Gil Vicente, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Moreirense
  2. D 1–1 v Marítimo
  3. L 1–3 at SL Benfica
  4. L 0–1 v Acad. Viseu
  5. D 0–0 at Famalicão
Gil Vicente, last 5 away
  1. W 1–0 at Moreirense
  2. L 1–3 at SL Benfica
  3. D 0–0 at Famalicão
  4. L 0–3 at Sporting CP
  5. D 0–0 at Rio Ave

Current streaks

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Braga and Gil Vicente.

How Braga and Gil Vicente compare this season

StatBraga (home, 4)Gil Vicente (away, 4)Primeira Liga average
Over 1.550% (2/4)50% (2/4)75%
Over 2.550% (2/4)50% (2/4)56%
Over 3.525% (1/4)25% (1/4)36%
BTTS50% (2/4)50% (2/4)51%
Win %50% (2/4)50% (2/4)39% home · 36% away
Goals for per game1.001.001.38
Goals against per game1.251.001.38

Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Braga9118
Gil Vicente6148

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Braga 1 win, 1 draw, Gil Vicente 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 14 Feb 2026Primeira LigaGil Vicente v Braga2–1
Sun, 14 Sept 2025Primeira LigaBraga v Gil Vicente0–1
Sun, 9 Feb 2025Primeira LigaBraga v Gil Vicente2–0
Sun, 1 Sept 2024Primeira LigaGil Vicente v Braga0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Braga v Gil Vicente?
Our model makes Braga the more likely winner at 55%: Braga 55%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 19%. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Braga v Gil Vicente?
Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 6 of 8 Gil Vicente games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Braga and Gil Vicente played recently?
Latest first: Braga LDWLW, Gil Vicente WDLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraCF Estrela da Amadora crestAmadoraCasa Pia AC crestCasa PiaU3.576%47%27%25%45%71%24%50%
18:00 · PrimeiraFC Alverca crestAlvercaFC Arouca crestAroucaO1.578%42%26%32%53%78%31%53%
20:30 · PrimeiraGil Vicente FC crestGil VicenteFC Porto crestPortoU3.581%18%27%54%39%66%19%47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraGD Estoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaMoreirense FC crestMoreirenseO1.577%47%26%28%52%77%30%52%
18:00 · PrimeiraCD Nacional crestNacionalSporting Clube de Braga crestBragaO1.576%22%24%54%52%76%30%51%
18:00 · PrimeiraRio Ave FC crestRio AveFC Famalicão crestFamalicãoU3.578%28%28%44%42%69%22%49%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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