Gil Vicente FC vs FC Porto prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK

Gil Vicente FC vs FC Porto prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK): Gil Vicente FC 18% · Draw 27% · FC Porto 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 0-1. Expected goals 0.76–1.50. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 47%, No 53%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Gil Vicente vs Porto preview

Gil Vicente (6th, 14 pts) host Porto (1st, 24 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Gil Vicente have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WWDLL) and Porto 9 points from 5 (LLWWW). Porto are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model makes Porto clear favourites at 54%, with Gil Vicente at 18%. Expected goals are 0.76 for Gil Vicente and 1.50 for Porto, and the most likely score is 0-1 (15%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 61%, while 56% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Gil Vicente won 1, Porto won 3 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Gil Vicente FC vs FC Porto?

FC Porto are clear favourites at 54%, with Gil Vicente FC at 18%. Recent form: Gil Vicente FC WWDLLD, FC Porto LLWWWL (latest first).

Porto won all 4 away games this season.

Gil Vicente FC

18%

Draw

27%

FC Porto

54%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 61%; Over 2.5 is 39%.

Under 2.5 in all 4 Gil Vicente home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	66%	34%	1.51
2.5 goals	39%	61%	2.55
3.5 goals	19%	81%	5.23

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance: Gil Vicente FC score in about 53% of simulated outcomes and FC Porto in about 78%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	47%	2.14
No	53%	1.88

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Gil Vicente FC win	18%	5.41
Draw	27%	3.70
FC Porto win	54%	1.84
Over 2.5	39%	2.55
Under 2.5	61%	1.64

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Gil Vicente FC goals (rows) × FC Porto goals (columns)
Gil \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11%	15%	12%	6%	2%	1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	1%
2	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	0%
3	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-1

15%

1-1

12%

0-2

12%

0-0

11%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Gil Vicente and Porto played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Gil Vicente, last 5

Gil Vicente, last 5 at home

Porto, last 5

Porto, last 5 away

Current streaks

Porto are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Porto have won each of their last 9 league games.
Porto: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Porto: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Porto: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Gil Vicente are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Gil Vicente and Porto.

How Gil Vicente and Porto compare this season

Stat	Gil Vicente (home, 4)	Porto (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	75%
Over 2.5	0% (0/4)	75% (3/4)	56%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	51%
Win %	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	39% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.00	2.75	1.38
Goals against per game	0.50	0.50	1.38

Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Gil Vicente	6	14	8
Porto	1	24	8

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Gil Vicente 1 win, 1 draw, Porto 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 26 Jan 2026	Primeira Liga	Porto v Gil Vicente	3–0
Mon, 18 Aug 2025	Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente v Porto	0–2
Sun, 19 Jan 2025	Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente v Porto	3–1
Sat, 10 Aug 2024	Primeira Liga	Porto v Gil Vicente	3–0
Sun, 25 Feb 2024	Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente v Porto	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Gil Vicente v Porto?: Our model makes Porto the more likely winner at 54%: Gil Vicente 18%, draw 27%, Porto 54%. Porto won all 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente v Porto?: Over 2.5 goals is 39% and under 2.5 is 61%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in all 4 Gil Vicente home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-1 at 15%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Gil Vicente and Porto played recently?: Latest first: Gil Vicente WWDLL, Porto LLWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAmadoravCasa Pia	U3.576%	47%	27%	25%	71%	45%	24%	50%	45%	71%	24%	50%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAlvercavArouca	O1.578%	42%	26%	32%	78%	53%	31%	53%	53%	78%	31%	53%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaEstoril PraiavMoreirense	O1.577%	47%	26%	28%	77%	52%	30%	52%	52%	77%	30%	52%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaNacionalvBraga	O1.576%	22%	24%	54%	76%	52%	30%	51%	52%	76%	30%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaRio AvevFamalicão	U3.578%	28%	28%	44%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%
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