FC Alverca vs FC Arouca prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 18:00 UK

FC Alverca vs FC Arouca prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 18:00 UK): FC Alverca 42% · Draw 26% · FC Arouca 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.51–1.30. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Alverca vs Arouca preview

Alverca (8th, 11 pts) host Arouca (5th, 14 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Alverca have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWWLD) and Arouca 8 points from 5 (WDLDW). Alverca are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Alverca 42%, Arouca 32%. Expected goals are 1.51 for Alverca and 1.30 for Arouca, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?

FC Alverca are favoured at 42%, but the draw and a FC Arouca win together still account for 58%. Recent form: FC Alverca WWWLDL, FC Arouca WDLDWL (latest first).

Alverca have won each of their last 3 league games.

FC Alverca

42%

Draw

26%

FC Arouca

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 8 Alverca games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.29
2.5 goals	53%	47%	1.87
3.5 goals	31%	69%	3.21

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: FC Alverca score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and FC Arouca in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 8 Alverca games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.89
No	47%	2.12

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Alverca win	42%	2.39
Draw	26%	3.87
FC Arouca win	32%	3.10
Over 2.5	53%	1.87
Under 2.5	47%	2.15

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Alverca goals (rows) × FC Arouca goals (columns)
FC \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

1-2

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Alverca and Arouca played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Alverca are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Alverca have won each of their last 3 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Alverca and Arouca.

How Alverca and Arouca compare this season

Stat	Alverca (home, 4)	Arouca (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	75%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	56%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	51%
Win %	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	39% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.25	0.75	1.38
Goals against per game	1.25	1.00	1.38

Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Alverca	8	11	8
Arouca	5	14	8

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Alverca 1 win, 0 draws, Arouca 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 24 Apr 2026	Primeira Liga	Alverca v Arouca	2–1
Sun, 14 Dec 2025	Primeira Liga	Arouca v Alverca	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Alverca v Arouca?: Our model makes Alverca the more likely winner at 42%: Alverca 42%, draw 26%, Arouca 32%. Alverca have won each of their last 3 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alverca v Arouca?: Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 5 of 8 Alverca games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Alverca and Arouca played recently?: Latest first: Alverca WWWLD, Arouca WDLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaAmadoravCasa Pia	U3.576%	47%	27%	25%	71%	45%	24%	50%	45%	71%	24%	50%
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaGil VicentevPorto	U3.581%	18%	27%	54%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaEstoril PraiavMoreirense	O1.577%	47%	26%	28%	77%	52%	30%	52%	52%	77%	30%	52%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaNacionalvBraga	O1.576%	22%	24%	54%	76%	52%	30%	51%	52%	76%	30%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaRio AvevFamalicão	U3.578%	28%	28%	44%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSporting CPvAcad. Viseu	O1.585%	72%	17%	11%	85%	65%	43%	51%	65%	85%	43%	51%

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