CF Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia AC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK): CF Estrela da Amadora 47% · Draw 27% · Casa Pia AC 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.01. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%).
Amadora (10th, 10 pts) host Casa Pia (17th, 4 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Amadora have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LLDWD) and Casa Pia 4 points from 5 (LWLDL). Amadora have not won in their last 3 league games.
Our model favours Amadora at 47% to Casa Pia's 25%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Amadora and 1.01 for Casa Pia, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 55%, while 56% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Amadora won 3 and Casa Pia won 2; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win CF Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia AC?
CF Estrela da Amadora are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a Casa Pia AC win together still account for 53%. Recent form: CF Estrela da Amadora LLDWDW, Casa Pia AC LWLDLL (latest first).
Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: CF Estrela da Amadora score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Casa Pia AC in about 64%, and both need to happen.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
