ProbaPredict

GD Estoril Praia crest GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense FC Moreirense FC crest prediction

Primeira Liga · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK

GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 15:30 UK): GD Estoril Praia 47% · Draw 26% · Moreirense FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.59–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Estoril Praia vs Moreirense preview

Estoril Praia (18th, 2 pts) host Moreirense (12th, 8 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Estoril Praia have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLDL) and Moreirense 4 points from 5 (LDWLL). Estoril Praia have not won in their last 16 league games.

Our model favours Estoril Praia at 47% to Moreirense's 28%. Expected goals are 1.59 for Estoril Praia and 1.17 for Moreirense, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril Praia didn't win any, Moreirense won 2 and 3 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win GD Estoril Praia vs Moreirense FC?

GD Estoril Praia are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a Moreirense FC win together still account for 53%. Recent form: GD Estoril Praia LLLDLL, Moreirense FC LDWLLW (latest first).

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

GD Estoril Praia47%
Draw26%
Moreirense FC28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 8 Moreirense games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals77%23%1.31
2.5 goals52%48%1.92
3.5 goals30%70%3.36

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: GD Estoril Praia score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Moreirense FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 17 Estoril Praia home games last season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes52%1.92
No48%2.09

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
GD Estoril Praia win47%2.14
Draw26%3.89
Moreirense FC win28%3.63
Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.08

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: GD Estoril Praia goals (rows) × Moreirense FC goals (columns)
GD \ Moreirense012345
07%7%4%2%0%0%
110%12%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
34%5%3%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
1-010%
2-19%
2-08%
0-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Estoril Praia and Moreirense played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Estoril Praia, last 5
  1. L 1–2 at Acad. Viseu
  2. L 1–2 v Casa Pia
  3. L 0–1 at Braga
  4. D 0–0 v Arouca
  5. L 1–2 at SL Benfica
Estoril Praia, last 5 at home
  1. L 1–2 v Casa Pia
  2. D 0–0 v Arouca
  3. L 0–2 v Rio Ave
  4. D 1–1 v Famalicão
  5. L 1–3 v SL Benfica
Moreirense, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v Gil Vicente
  2. D 1–1 at Vitória
  3. W 3–1 v Marítimo
  4. L 0–4 v SL Benfica
  5. L 1–2 at Porto
Moreirense, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Vitória
  2. L 1–2 at Porto
  3. W 1–0 at Casa Pia
  4. L 0–4 at Arouca
  5. L 0–2 at Tondela

Current streaks

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Estoril Praia and Moreirense.

How Estoril Praia and Moreirense compare this season

StatEstoril Praia (home, 4)Moreirense (away, 4)Primeira Liga average
Over 1.575% (3/4)75% (3/4)75%
Over 2.525% (1/4)50% (2/4)56%
Over 3.50% (0/4)25% (1/4)36%
BTTS50% (2/4)50% (2/4)51%
Win %0% (0/4)25% (1/4)39% home · 36% away
Goals for per game0.500.751.38
Goals against per game1.251.751.38

Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Estoril Praia1828
Moreirense1288

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Estoril Praia 0 wins, 3 draws, Moreirense 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Mon, 20 Apr 2026Primeira LigaMoreirense v Estoril Praia1–0
Sun, 7 Dec 2025Primeira LigaEstoril Praia v Moreirense3–3
Sun, 11 May 2025Primeira LigaMoreirense v Estoril Praia2–2
Sat, 28 Dec 2024Primeira LigaEstoril Praia v Moreirense2–2
Sat, 18 May 2024Primeira LigaMoreirense v Estoril Praia2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Estoril Praia v Moreirense?
Our model makes Estoril Praia the more likely winner at 47%: Estoril Praia 47%, draw 26%, Moreirense 28%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estoril Praia v Moreirense?
Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 5 of 8 Moreirense games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Estoril Praia and Moreirense played recently?
Latest first: Estoril Praia LLLDL, Moreirense LDWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraCF Estrela da Amadora crestAmadoraCasa Pia AC crestCasa PiaU3.576%47%27%25%45%71%24%50%
18:00 · PrimeiraFC Alverca crestAlvercaFC Arouca crestAroucaO1.578%42%26%32%53%78%31%53%
20:30 · PrimeiraGil Vicente FC crestGil VicenteFC Porto crestPortoU3.581%18%27%54%39%66%19%47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
18:00 · PrimeiraCD Nacional crestNacionalSporting Clube de Braga crestBragaO1.576%22%24%54%52%76%30%51%
18:00 · PrimeiraRio Ave FC crestRio AveFC Famalicão crestFamalicãoU3.578%28%28%44%42%69%22%49%
20:30 · PrimeiraSporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CPAcadémico de Viseu FC crestAcad. ViseuO1.585%72%17%11%65%85%43%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
01:00 · BrasileirãoSantos FC crestSantosEC Bahia crestBahiaO1.578%42%26%32%54%78%32%53%
11:15 · EredivisieFortuna Sittard crestSittardSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorO1.581%44%25%31%59%81%37%59%
11:30 · Serie AFC Internazionale Milano crestInterACF Fiorentina crestFiorentinaO1.586%72%16%11%68%86%46%53%
13:00 · La LigaAthletic Club crestAthleticGetafe CF crestGetafeU3.590%45%33%22%26%53%10%46%
13:30 · EredivisieNEC crestNECFC Groningen crestGroningenO1.585%52%22%25%65%85%43%60%