SE Palmeiras vs SC Corinthians Paulista prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK

Full-time: SE Palmeiras 4–1 SC Corinthians Paulista (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SE Palmeiras a 62% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 2% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (62%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (69%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (58%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (78%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick no (54%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-0 (15%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (86%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SE Palmeiras vs SC Corinthians Paulista prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK): SE Palmeiras 62% · Draw 24% · SC Corinthians Paulista 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.70–0.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 46%, No 54%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).

Published Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 07:00 UK · Updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians pre-match preview

Palmeiras (2nd, 66 pts) host Corinthians (16th, 33 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Palmeiras have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WDWDD) and Corinthians 0 points from 5 (LLLLL), so Palmeiras arrive in clearly better form. Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.

Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites at 62%, with Corinthians at 14%. Expected goals are 1.70 for Palmeiras and 0.68 for Corinthians, and the most likely score is 1-0 (15%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 46%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Palmeiras won 1, Corinthians won 1 and 2 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Palmeiras to win is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SE Palmeiras vs SC Corinthians Paulista?

SE Palmeiras are clear favourites at 62%, with SC Corinthians Paulista at 14%. Recent form: SE Palmeiras WDWDDW, SC Corinthians Paulista LLLLLL (latest first).

Palmeiras won 11 of 15 home games this season.

SE Palmeiras

62%

Draw

24%

SC Corinthians Paulista

14%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.36
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.63

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance: SE Palmeiras score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and SC Corinthians Paulista in about 50%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	46%	2.15
No	54%	1.87

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SE Palmeiras win	62%	1.62
Draw	24%	4.11
SC Corinthians Paulista win	14%	7.11
Over 2.5	42%	2.36
Under 2.5	58%	1.74

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SE Palmeiras goals (rows) × SC Corinthians Paulista goals (columns)
SE \ SC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%
1	15%	11%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	13%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

15%

2-0

13%

1-1

11%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Palmeiras and Corinthians played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Palmeiras, last 5

Palmeiras, last 5 at home

Corinthians, last 5

Corinthians, last 5 away

Current streaks

Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.
Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Corinthians: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Corinthians: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Palmeiras have won each of their last 3 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Palmeiras and Corinthians.

How Palmeiras and Corinthians compare this season

Stat	Palmeiras (home, 15)	Corinthians (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	67% (10/15)	80% (12/15)	78%
Over 2.5	47% (7/15)	53% (8/15)	51%
Over 3.5	20% (3/15)	27% (4/15)	26%
BTTS	60% (9/15)	73% (11/15)	59%
Win %	73% (11/15)	20% (3/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.87	1.07	1.33
Goals against per game	0.67	1.47	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Palmeiras	2	66	31
Corinthians	16	33	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Palmeiras 1 win, 2 draws, Corinthians 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Palmeiras	0–0
Sun, 31 Aug 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Palmeiras	1–1
Sat, 12 Apr 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Corinthians	2–0
Mon, 4 Nov 2024	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Palmeiras	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Palmeiras v Corinthians?: Our model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 62%: Palmeiras 62%, draw 24%, Corinthians 14%. Palmeiras won 11 of 15 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Palmeiras v Corinthians?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 15%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Palmeiras and Corinthians played recently?: Latest first: Palmeiras WDWDD, Corinthians LLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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