CA Paranaense vs SE Palmeiras prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK

Full-time: CA Paranaense 0–2 SE Palmeiras (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave SE Palmeiras a 45% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–2 a 8% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (45%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (73%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (53%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (74%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

CA Paranaense vs SE Palmeiras prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK): CA Paranaense 28% · Draw 27% · SE Palmeiras 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.10–1.46. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

Published Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Paranaense vs Palmeiras pre-match preview

Paranaense (3rd, 53 pts) host Palmeiras (2nd, 66 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Paranaense have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDWDL) and Palmeiras 11 points from 5 (WWDWD). Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.

Our model favours Palmeiras at 45% to Paranaense's 28%. Expected goals are 1.10 for Paranaense and 1.46 for Palmeiras, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Paranaense won 1 and Palmeiras won 3; none had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win CA Paranaense vs SE Palmeiras?

SE Palmeiras are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a CA Paranaense win together still account for 55%. Recent form: CA Paranaense WDWDLD, SE Palmeiras WWDWDD (latest first).

Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

CA Paranaense

28%

Draw

27%

SE Palmeiras

45%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.37
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.12
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.91

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: CA Paranaense score in about 67% of simulated outcomes and SE Palmeiras in about 77%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 19 Palmeiras away games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.97
No	49%	2.03

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
CA Paranaense win	28%	3.57
Draw	27%	3.71
SE Palmeiras win	45%	2.22
Over 2.5	47%	2.12
Under 2.5	53%	1.89

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CA Paranaense goals (rows) × SE Palmeiras goals (columns)
CA \ SE	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	11%	8%	4%	1%	0%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%	2%	0%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

11%

1-2

0-2

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Paranaense and Palmeiras played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Paranaense, last 5

Paranaense, last 5 at home

Palmeiras, last 5

Palmeiras, last 5 away

Current streaks

Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Palmeiras have won each of their last 3 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Paranaense and Palmeiras.

How Paranaense and Palmeiras compare this season

Stat	Paranaense (home, 16)	Palmeiras (away, 16)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	81% (13/16)	69% (11/16)	78%
Over 2.5	44% (7/16)	50% (8/16)	51%
Over 3.5	25% (4/16)	31% (5/16)	26%
BTTS	56% (9/16)	50% (8/16)	59%
Win %	56% (9/16)	50% (8/16)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.69	1.63	1.33
Goals against per game	0.94	0.75	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Paranaense	3	53	31
Palmeiras	2	66	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Paranaense 1 win, 0 draws, Palmeiras 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 19 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Paranaense	1–0
Sun, 1 Sept 2024	Brasileirão Série A	Paranaense v Palmeiras	0–2
Sun, 12 May 2024	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Paranaense	0–2
Sun, 5 Nov 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Palmeiras v Paranaense	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Paranaense v Palmeiras?: Our model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 45%: Paranaense 28%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 45%. Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paranaense v Palmeiras?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Paranaense and Palmeiras played recently?: Latest first: Paranaense WDWDL, Palmeiras WWDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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