Chapecoense AF vs CA Paranaense prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK

Full-time: Chapecoense AF 1–4 CA Paranaense (Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CA Paranaense a 56% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–4 a 3% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (56%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (82%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (60%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (62%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick X2 (79%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Chapecoense AF vs CA Paranaense prediction (Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK): Chapecoense AF 21% · Draw 23% · CA Paranaense 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.15–1.97. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%).

Published Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 10:28 UK · Updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Chapecoense vs Paranaense pre-match preview

Chapecoense (20th, 18 pts) host Paranaense (3rd, 53 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Chapecoense have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDLWL) and Paranaense 6 points from 5 (DWDLD). Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.

Our model makes Paranaense clear favourites at 56%, with Chapecoense at 21%. Expected goals are 1.15 for Chapecoense and 1.97 for Paranaense, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 60%, against a Brasileirão Série A average of 51%. In their last 3 meetings, Chapecoense didn't win any, Paranaense won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Chapecoense AF vs CA Paranaense?

CA Paranaense are clear favourites at 56%, with Chapecoense AF at 21%. Recent form: Chapecoense AF LDLWLW, CA Paranaense DWDLDW (latest first).

Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.

Chapecoense AF

21%

Draw

23%

CA Paranaense

56%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 60% and Under 2.5 is 40%.

Over 2.5 in 10 of 14 Chapecoense home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.22
2.5 goals	60%	40%	1.66
3.5 goals	38%	62%	2.64

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Chapecoense AF score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and CA Paranaense in about 86%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 10 of 14 Chapecoense home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.86
No	46%	2.16

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Chapecoense AF win	21%	4.66
Draw	23%	4.44
CA Paranaense win	56%	1.79
Over 2.5	60%	1.66
Under 2.5	40%	2.52

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Chapecoense AF goals (rows) × CA Paranaense goals (columns)
Chapecoense \ CA	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	8%	9%	6%	3%	1%
1	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%	1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-2

0-1

1-3

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Chapecoense and Paranaense played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Chapecoense, last 5

Chapecoense, last 5 at home

Paranaense, last 5

Paranaense, last 5 away

Current streaks

Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Chapecoense have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Chapecoense and Paranaense.

How Chapecoense and Paranaense compare this season

Stat	Chapecoense (home, 14)	Paranaense (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	86% (12/14)	73% (11/15)	78%
Over 2.5	71% (10/14)	60% (9/15)	51%
Over 3.5	57% (8/14)	33% (5/15)	26%
BTTS	71% (10/14)	60% (9/15)	59%
Win %	14% (2/14)	40% (6/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.36	1.47	1.33
Goals against per game	2.36	1.47	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Chapecoense	20	18	30
Paranaense	3	53	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Chapecoense 0 wins, 2 draws, Paranaense 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 3; both teams scored in 2 of 3.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Paranaense v Chapecoense	2–0
Wed, 13 Oct 2021	Brasileirão Série A	Chapecoense v Paranaense	1–1
Mon, 28 Jun 2021	Brasileirão Série A	Paranaense v Chapecoense	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Chapecoense v Paranaense?: Our model makes Paranaense the more likely winner at 56%: Chapecoense 21%, draw 23%, Paranaense 56%. Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chapecoense v Paranaense?: Over 2.5 goals is 60% and under 2.5 is 40%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 10 of 14 Chapecoense home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Chapecoense and Paranaense played recently?: Latest first: Chapecoense LDLWL, Paranaense DWDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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