Coritiba FBC vs Botafogo FR prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Coritiba FBC 1–1 Botafogo FR (Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 25% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 11% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (44%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (82%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (59%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (63%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Correct
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Coritiba FBC vs Botafogo FR prediction (Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Coritiba FBC 32% · Draw 25% · Botafogo FR 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.40–1.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 22:18 UK · Updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Coritiba vs Botafogo pre-match preview

Coritiba (12th, 39 pts) host Botafogo (11th, 39 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Coritiba have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLDLW) and Botafogo 5 points from 5 (LLWDD). Coritiba have not won in their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Botafogo at 44% to Coritiba's 32%. Expected goals are 1.40 for Coritiba and 1.68 for Botafogo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 59%, against a Brasileirão Série A average of 51%. In their last 4 meetings, Coritiba didn't win any, Botafogo won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Coritiba FBC vs Botafogo FR?

Botafogo FR are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Coritiba FBC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Coritiba FBC LLDLWW, Botafogo FR LLWDDL (latest first).

Coritiba have not won in their last 6 league games.

Coritiba FBC

32%

Draw

25%

Botafogo FR

44%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 19 of 31 Botafogo games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.22
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.68
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Coritiba FBC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Botafogo FR in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 21 of 31 Botafogo games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.21

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Coritiba FBC win	32%	3.17
Draw	25%	4.07
Botafogo FR win	44%	2.28
Over 2.5	59%	1.68
Under 2.5	41%	2.46

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Coritiba FBC goals (rows) × Botafogo FR goals (columns)
Coritiba \ Botafogo	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	8%	6%	4%	2%	1%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-2

2-1

0-1

0-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Coritiba and Botafogo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Coritiba, last 5

Coritiba, last 5 at home

Botafogo, last 5

Botafogo, last 5 away

Current streaks

Coritiba have not won in their last 6 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Coritiba and Botafogo.

How Coritiba and Botafogo compare this season

Stat	Coritiba (home, 15)	Botafogo (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	73% (11/15)	80% (12/15)	78%
Over 2.5	47% (7/15)	53% (8/15)	51%
Over 3.5	27% (4/15)	20% (3/15)	26%
BTTS	67% (10/15)	67% (10/15)	59%
Win %	33% (5/15)	27% (4/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.33	1.20	1.33
Goals against per game	1.33	1.73	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Coritiba	12	39	31
Botafogo	11	39	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Coritiba 0 wins, 2 draws, Botafogo 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Botafogo v Coritiba	2–2
Thu, 30 Nov 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Coritiba v Botafogo	1–1
Sun, 30 Jul 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Botafogo v Coritiba	4–1
Sat, 17 Sept 2022	Brasileirão Série A	Botafogo v Coritiba	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Coritiba v Botafogo?: Our model makes Botafogo the more likely winner at 44%: Coritiba 32%, draw 25%, Botafogo 44%. Coritiba have not won in their last 6 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Coritiba v Botafogo?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 19 of 31 Botafogo games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Coritiba and Botafogo played recently?: Latest first: Coritiba LLDLW, Botafogo LLWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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