prediction
Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:00 UK
Full-time: Botafogo FR 1–0 Chapecoense AF (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Botafogo FR a 71% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 8% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.
3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (71%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (86%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (67%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (55%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (53%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 2-0 (10%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 1X (88%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Botafogo FR vs Chapecoense AF prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 22:00 UK): Botafogo FR 71% · Draw 17% · Chapecoense AF 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.51–0.94. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense pre-match preview
Botafogo (11th, 39 pts) host Chapecoense (20th, 18 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Botafogo have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (DLLWD) and Chapecoense 4 points from 5 (LLDLW). Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Our model makes Botafogo clear favourites at 71%, with Chapecoense at 12%. Expected goals are 2.51 for Botafogo and 0.94 for Chapecoense, and the most likely score is 2-0 (10%).
Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 67%, against a Brasileirão Série A average of 51%.
Botafogo to win is the model's clearest call at 71%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win Botafogo FR vs Chapecoense AF?
Botafogo FR are clear favourites at 71%, with Chapecoense AF at 12%. Recent form: Botafogo FR DLLWDD, Chapecoense AF LLDLWL (latest first).
Chapecoense lost 11 of 16 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.
Over 2.5 in 11 of 16 Botafogo home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 86% | 14% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | 1.49 |
| 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | 2.21 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Botafogo FR score in about 92% of simulated outcomes and Chapecoense AF in about 63%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 11 of 16 Botafogo home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo FR win | 71% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.89 |
| Chapecoense AF win | 12% | 8.49 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.4 total goals.
| Botafogo \ Chapecoense | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 4% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Botafogo and Chapecoense played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
- Chapecoense have lost each of their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Botafogo and Chapecoense.
How Botafogo and Chapecoense compare this season
| Stat | Botafogo (home, 16) | Chapecoense (away, 16) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% (13/16) | 88% (14/16) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% (11/16) | 44% (7/16) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% (7/16) | 19% (3/16) | 26% |
| BTTS | 69% (11/16) | 56% (9/16) | 59% |
| Win % | 38% (6/16) | 6% (1/16) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.63 | 0.69 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.38 | 1.81 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 11 | 39 | 31 |
| Chapecoense | 20 | 18 | 30 |
Head-to-head
Last 1 meeting: Botafogo 1 win, 0 draws, Chapecoense 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1; both teams scored in 1 of 1.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 18 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Chapecoense v Botafogo | 1–4 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Botafogo v Chapecoense?
- Our model makes Botafogo the more likely winner at 71%: Botafogo 71%, draw 17%, Chapecoense 12%. Chapecoense lost 11 of 16 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Botafogo v Chapecoense?
- Over 2.5 goals is 67% and under 2.5 is 33%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in 11 of 16 Botafogo home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-0 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Botafogo and Chapecoense played recently?
- Latest first: Botafogo DLLWD, Chapecoense LLDLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Botafogo FR
- Chapecoense AF
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A | U3.574%✓ | 48%✓ | 26%✕ | 25%✕ | 48%✕ | 73%✓ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✕ | 62%✕ | 24%✓ | 14%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 48%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.581%✓ | 61%✕ | 22%✓ | 18%✕ | 58%✓ | 81%✓ | 36%✓ | 54%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.582%✓ | 39%✓ | 30%✕ | 31%✕ | 37%✕ | 65%✓ | 18%✕ | 50%✕ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.575%✓ | 38%✕ | 27%✕ | 35%✓ | 50%✕ | 75%✓ | 28%✕ | 57%✕ |