Fluminense FC vs Santos FC prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Fluminense FC 1–2 Santos FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Santos FC a 23% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (52%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (77%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (53%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (69%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (77%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Fluminense FC vs Santos FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Fluminense FC 52% · Draw 25% · Santos FC 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.71–1.08. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Fluminense vs Santos pre-match preview

Fluminense (5th, 51 pts) host Santos (8th, 45 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Fluminense have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (LWWLW) and Santos 10 points from 5 (LDWWW). Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Fluminense at 52% to Santos's 23%. Expected goals are 1.71 for Fluminense and 1.08 for Santos, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 4 meetings, Fluminense won 3, Santos didn't win any and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Fluminense FC vs Santos FC?

Fluminense FC are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a Santos FC win together still account for 48%. Recent form: Fluminense FC LWWLWD, Santos FC LDWWWW (latest first).

Fluminense won 11 of 16 home games this season.

Fluminense FC

52%

Draw

25%

Santos FC

23%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.

Over 2.5 in 13 of 16 Santos away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
2.5 goals	53%	47%	1.90
3.5 goals	31%	69%	3.28

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Fluminense FC score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and Santos FC in about 66%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 13 of 16 Santos away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Fluminense FC win	52%	1.93
Draw	25%	4.05
Santos FC win	23%	4.27
Over 2.5	53%	1.90
Under 2.5	47%	2.12

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Fluminense FC goals (rows) × Santos FC goals (columns)
Fluminense \ Santos	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Fluminense and Santos played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Fluminense and Santos.

How Fluminense and Santos compare this season

Stat	Fluminense (home, 16)	Santos (away, 16)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	75% (12/16)	88% (14/16)	78%
Over 2.5	69% (11/16)	81% (13/16)	51%
Over 3.5	31% (5/16)	38% (6/16)	26%
BTTS	69% (11/16)	81% (13/16)	59%
Win %	69% (11/16)	38% (6/16)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.81	1.63	1.33
Goals against per game	1.00	1.63	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Fluminense	5	51	31
Santos	8	45	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Fluminense 3 wins, 1 draw, Santos 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 19 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Fluminense	2–3
Sun, 31 Aug 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Fluminense	0–0
Sun, 13 Apr 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Fluminense v Santos	1–0
Wed, 29 Nov 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Fluminense	0–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Fluminense v Santos?: Our model makes Fluminense the more likely winner at 52%: Fluminense 52%, draw 25%, Santos 23%. Fluminense won 11 of 16 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fluminense v Santos?: Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 13 of 16 Santos away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Fluminense and Santos played recently?: Latest first: Fluminense LWWLW, Santos LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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