CA Mineiro vs Santos FC prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: CA Mineiro 2–1 Santos FC (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CA Mineiro a 43% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 9% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (43%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (74%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (51%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (73%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

CA Mineiro vs Santos FC prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): CA Mineiro 43% · Draw 27% · Santos FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.46–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 07:00 UK · Updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Mineiro vs Santos pre-match preview

Mineiro (6th, 50 pts) host Santos (8th, 45 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Mineiro have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DWDWL) and Santos 13 points from 5 (DWWWW). Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Mineiro at 43% to Santos's 30%. Expected goals are 1.46 for Mineiro and 1.17 for Santos, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 4 meetings, Mineiro won 1, Santos won 2 and 1 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win CA Mineiro vs Santos FC?

CA Mineiro are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a Santos FC win together still account for 57%. Recent form: CA Mineiro DWDWLW, Santos FC DWWWWW (latest first).

Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.

CA Mineiro

43%

Draw

27%

Santos FC

30%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 23 of 38 Mineiro games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.35
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.05
3.5 goals	27%	73%	3.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: CA Mineiro score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Santos FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 13 of 16 Santos away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.94
No	48%	2.06

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
CA Mineiro win	43%	2.31
Draw	27%	3.72
Santos FC win	30%	3.35
Over 2.5	49%	2.05
Under 2.5	51%	1.96

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CA Mineiro goals (rows) × Santos FC goals (columns)
CA \ Santos	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	4%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

2-1

0-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Mineiro and Santos played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Santos: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 6 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Mineiro and Santos.

How Mineiro and Santos compare this season

Stat	Mineiro (home, 16)	Santos (away, 16)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	75% (12/16)	88% (14/16)	78%
Over 2.5	56% (9/16)	81% (13/16)	51%
Over 3.5	31% (5/16)	38% (6/16)	26%
BTTS	63% (10/16)	81% (13/16)	59%
Win %	63% (10/16)	38% (6/16)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.69	1.63	1.33
Goals against per game	1.06	1.63	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Mineiro	6	50	31
Santos	8	45	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Mineiro 1 win, 1 draw, Santos 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Mineiro	1–0
Sun, 14 Sept 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Mineiro v Santos	1–1
Thu, 17 Apr 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Santos v Mineiro	2–0
Sun, 27 Aug 2023	Brasileirão Série A	Mineiro v Santos	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mineiro v Santos?: Our model makes Mineiro the more likely winner at 43%: Mineiro 43%, draw 27%, Santos 30%. Mineiro won 10 of 16 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mineiro v Santos?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 23 of 38 Mineiro games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Mineiro and Santos played recently?: Latest first: Mineiro DWDWL, Santos DWWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
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