Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK
Full-time: EC Bahia 1–0 Mirassol FC (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave EC Bahia a 43% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 9% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.
3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (43%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (76%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (51%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (71%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
EC Bahia vs Mirassol FC prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK): EC Bahia 43% · Draw 27% · Mirassol FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.49–1.22. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Bahia vs Mirassol pre-match preview
Bahia (7th, 49 pts) host Mirassol (14th, 36 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Bahia have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (LLWWW) and Mirassol 8 points from 5 (DWDWL). Mirassol: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Our model favours Bahia at 43% to Mirassol's 31%. Expected goals are 1.49 for Bahia and 1.22 for Mirassol, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 3 meetings, Bahia won 1, Mirassol won 1 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win EC Bahia vs Mirassol FC?
EC Bahia are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a Mirassol FC win together still account for 57%. Recent form: EC Bahia LLWWWW, Mirassol FC DWDWLD (latest first).
Mirassol lost 9 of 15 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.
Over 2.5 in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 76% | 24% | 1.32 |
| 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | 1.97 |
| 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | 3.49 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: EC Bahia score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Mirassol FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 20 of 31 Mirassol games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| EC Bahia win | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 |
| Mirassol FC win | 31% | 3.27 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.7 total goals.
| EC \ Mirassol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Bahia and Mirassol played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Mirassol: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- Bahia: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Bahia and Mirassol.
How Bahia and Mirassol compare this season
| Stat | Bahia (home, 16) | Mirassol (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% (14/16) | 67% (10/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% (8/16) | 40% (6/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% (2/16) | 27% (4/15) | 26% |
| BTTS | 63% (10/16) | 60% (9/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 44% (7/16) | 13% (2/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.44 | 0.87 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.06 | 1.53 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 7 | 49 | 31 |
| Mirassol | 14 | 36 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bahia 1 win, 1 draw, Mirassol 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 3; both teams scored in 3 of 3.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 11 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Mirassol v Bahia | 1–2 |
| Sun, 31 Aug 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Mirassol v Bahia | 5–1 |
| Sun, 13 Apr 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Bahia v Mirassol | 1–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Bahia v Mirassol?
- Our model makes Bahia the more likely winner at 43%: Bahia 43%, draw 27%, Mirassol 31%. Mirassol lost 9 of 15 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bahia v Mirassol?
- Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Bahia and Mirassol played recently?
- Latest first: Bahia LLWWW, Mirassol DWDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- EC Bahia
- Mirassol FC
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A | U3.581%✓ | 46%✓ | 29%✕ | 25%✕ | 39%✓ | 66%✓ | 19%✕ | 48%✓ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584%✓ | 70%✓ | 18%✕ | 12%✕ | 64%✓ | 84%✓ | 42%✓ | 56%✓ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.577%✓ | 37%✕ | 28%✓ | 34%✕ | 44%✕ | 70%✕ | 23%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.583%✕ | 62%✓ | 21%✕ | 17%✕ | 61%✕ | 83%✕ | 39%✕ | 55%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577%✕ | 36%✕ | 26%✓ | 37%✕ | 52%✕ | 77%✕ | 30%✕ | 55%✕ |