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EC Bahia crest EC Bahia vs CR Flamengo CR Flamengo crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK

Full-time: EC Bahia 0–3 CR Flamengo (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CR Flamengo a 51% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–3 a 5% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

EC Bahia vs CR Flamengo prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): EC Bahia 23% · Draw 26% · CR Flamengo 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.03–1.63. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bahia vs Flamengo pre-match preview

Bahia (7th, 49 pts) host Flamengo (1st, 67 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Bahia have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WLLWW) and Flamengo 13 points from 5 (WDWWW). Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model favours Flamengo at 51% to Bahia's 23%. Expected goals are 1.03 for Bahia and 1.63 for Flamengo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Bahia won 1 and Flamengo won 3; none had over 2.5 goals.

Flamengo to win is the model's clearest call at 51%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win EC Bahia vs CR Flamengo?

CR Flamengo are favoured at 51%, but the draw and a EC Bahia win together still account for 49%. Recent form: EC Bahia WLLWWW, CR Flamengo WDWWWW (latest first).

Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

EC Bahia23%
Draw26%
CR Flamengo51%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals75%25%1.34
2.5 goals50%50%2.02
3.5 goals28%72%3.62

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: EC Bahia score in about 64% of simulated outcomes and CR Flamengo in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 10 of 16 Bahia home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.96
No49%2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
EC Bahia win23%4.26
Draw26%3.92
CR Flamengo win51%1.96
Over 2.550%2.02
Under 2.550%1.98

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: EC Bahia goals (rows) × CR Flamengo goals (columns)
EC \ CR012345
07%11%9%5%2%1%
17%12%10%5%2%1%
24%6%5%3%1%0%
31%2%2%1%0%0%
40%1%0%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
0-111%
1-210%
0-29%
0-07%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bahia and Flamengo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bahia, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Mirassol
  2. L 0–1 at Palmeiras
  3. L 1–2 at Paranaense
  4. W 2–1 v Clube do Remo
  5. W 3–2 at Bragantino
Bahia, last 5 at home
  1. W 1–0 v Mirassol
  2. W 2–1 v Clube do Remo
  3. W 3–2 v Internacional
  4. D 0–0 v Vasco da Gama
  5. D 1–1 v Corinthians
Flamengo, last 5
  1. W 1–0 v Fluminense
  2. D 2–2 at Santos
  3. W 2–1 v Bragantino
  4. W 2–1 v Corinthians
  5. W 1–0 at Clube do Remo
Flamengo, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Santos
  2. W 1–0 at Clube do Remo
  3. L 1–2 at Cruzeiro
  4. W 5–1 at Mirassol
  5. D 1–1 at Internacional

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Bahia and Flamengo.

How Bahia and Flamengo compare this season

StatBahia (home, 16)Flamengo (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.588% (14/16)88% (14/16)78%
Over 2.550% (8/16)69% (11/16)51%
Over 3.513% (2/16)25% (4/16)26%
BTTS63% (10/16)56% (9/16)59%
Win %44% (7/16)56% (9/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.442.001.33
Goals against per game1.060.941.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Bahia74931
Flamengo16731

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bahia 1 win, 0 draws, Flamengo 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AFlamengo v Bahia2–0
Sun, 5 Oct 2025Brasileirão Série ABahia v Flamengo1–0
Sun, 11 May 2025Brasileirão Série AFlamengo v Bahia1–0
Sat, 5 Oct 2024Brasileirão Série ABahia v Flamengo0–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bahia v Flamengo?
Our model makes Flamengo the more likely winner at 51%: Bahia 23%, draw 26%, Flamengo 51%. Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bahia v Flamengo?
Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bahia and Flamengo played recently?
Latest first: Bahia WLLWW, Flamengo WDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 18 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoSão Paulo FC crestSão Paulo1CR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da Gama0O1.574%✕45%✓27%✕29%✕48%✕74%✕26%✕51%✕
FT · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolle4Go Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead1O1.585%✓28%✓23%✕49%✕65%✓85%✓43%✓61%✓
FT · Serie AUdinese Calcio crestUdinese0US Lecce crestLecce3U3.580%✓53%✕27%✕20%✓41%✓68%✓20%✕48%✕
FT · La LigaCA Osasuna crestOsasuna2Real Racing Club de Santander crestSantander0O1.587%✓48%✓22%✕30%✕68%✕87%✓46%✕60%✕
FT · EredivisieSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden crestCambuur2AZ crestAZ2O1.586%✓22%✕21%✓56%✕66%✓86%✓44%✓60%✓