Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK
Full-time: NEC 2–2 Fortuna Sittard (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 20% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (60%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 2-1 (10%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 1X (81%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (86%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (67%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (55%)Incorrect
Published before kick-off, unchanged
NEC vs Fortuna Sittard prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK): NEC 60% · Draw 20% · Fortuna Sittard 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.24–1.21. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
NEC vs Sittard pre-match preview
NEC (12th, 10 pts) host Sittard (6th, 15 pts) in the Eredivisie. NEC have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (DDLDL) and Sittard 10 points from 5 (DWLWW), so Sittard arrive in clearly better form. NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.
Our model makes NEC clear favourites at 60%, with Sittard at 19%. Expected goals are 2.24 for NEC and 1.21 for Sittard, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 60%, against 72% across the Eredivisie. In their last 4 meetings, NEC won 2 and Sittard won 2; all had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 67%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC are clear favourites at 60%, with Fortuna Sittard at 19%. Recent form: NEC DDLDLW, Fortuna Sittard DWLWWL (latest first).
NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.
Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 NEC home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 86% | 14% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | 1.49 |
| 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | 2.21 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: NEC score in about 89% of simulated outcomes and Fortuna Sittard in about 71%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 5 NEC home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.93 |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 19% | 5.16 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.5 total goals.
| NEC \ Fortuna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have NEC and Sittard played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.
- NEC have not won in their last 6 league games.
- NEC: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
- Sittard are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. NEC and Sittard.
How NEC and Sittard compare this season
| Stat | NEC (home, 5) | Sittard (away, 5) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (5/5) | 80% (4/5) | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% (4/5) | 80% (4/5) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) | 63% |
| BTTS | 100% (5/5) | 80% (4/5) | 72% |
| Win % | 0% (0/5) | 60% (3/5) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.92 |
| Goals against per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | 1.92 |
Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Sittard | 6 | 15 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: NEC 2 wins, 0 draws, Sittard 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 28 Feb 2026 | Eredivisie | NEC v Sittard | 2–3 |
| Sun, 31 Aug 2025 | Eredivisie | Sittard v NEC | 3–2 |
| Sun, 19 Jan 2025 | Eredivisie | NEC v Sittard | 4–1 |
| Sat, 31 Aug 2024 | Eredivisie | Sittard v NEC | 0–3 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win NEC v Sittard?
- Our model makes NEC the more likely winner at 60%: NEC 60%, draw 20%, Sittard 19%. NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC v Sittard?
- Over 2.5 goals is 67% and under 2.5 is 33%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 NEC home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have NEC and Sittard played recently?
- Latest first: NEC DDLDL, Sittard DWLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- NEC
- Fortuna Sittard
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 63% | 20% | 17% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 59% |
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 34% | 25% | 41% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574%✕ | 45%✓ | 27%✕ | 29%✕ | 48%✕ | 74%✕ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.585%✓ | 28%✓ | 23%✕ | 49%✕ | 65%✓ | 85%✓ | 43%✓ | 61%✓ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.580%✓ | 53%✕ | 27%✕ | 20%✓ | 41%✓ | 68%✓ | 20%✕ | 48%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.587%✓ | 48%✓ | 22%✕ | 30%✕ | 68%✕ | 87%✓ | 46%✕ | 60%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.586%✓ | 22%✕ | 21%✓ | 56%✕ | 66%✓ | 86%✓ | 44%✓ | 60%✓ |