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Bayer 04 Leverkusen crest Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg SC Freiburg crest prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

Full-time: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 59% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 10% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

7 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): Bayer 04 Leverkusen 59% · Draw 21% · SC Freiburg 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.15–1.21. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 62%, No 38%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Leverkusen vs Freiburg pre-match preview

Leverkusen (4th, 13 pts) host Freiburg (3rd, 13 pts) in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWDWL) and Freiburg 13 points from 5 (WDWWW). Leverkusen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Our model makes Leverkusen clear favourites at 59%, with Freiburg at 20%. Expected goals are 2.15 for Leverkusen and 1.21 for Freiburg, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).

Over 2.5 goals is 65%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match. In their last 4 meetings, Leverkusen won 2, Freiburg didn't win any and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are clear favourites at 59%, with SC Freiburg at 20%. Recent form: Bayer 04 Leverkusen WWDWLD, SC Freiburg WDWWWW (latest first).

Leverkusen won all 3 home games this season.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen59%
Draw21%
SC Freiburg20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 65%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Leverkusen games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals85%15%1.17
2.5 goals65%35%1.53
3.5 goals43%57%2.31

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance: Bayer 04 Leverkusen score in about 88% of simulated outcomes and SC Freiburg in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Leverkusen games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes62%1.63
No38%2.60

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win59%1.71
Draw21%4.76
SC Freiburg win20%4.91
Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals (rows) × SC Freiburg goals (columns)
Bayer \ SC012345
04%4%3%1%0%0%
17%9%5%2%1%0%
28%10%6%2%1%0%
36%7%4%2%1%0%
43%4%2%1%0%0%
51%2%1%0%0%0%
Other2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
2-110%
1-19%
2-08%
1-07%
3-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Leverkusen and Freiburg played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Leverkusen, last 5
  1. W 4–3 at Mainz
  2. W 2–0 v Leipzig
  3. D 2–2 at Augsburg
  4. W 4–0 v Union Berlin
  5. L 2–3 at Elversberg
Leverkusen, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–0 v Leipzig
  2. W 4–0 v Union Berlin
  3. D 1–1 v HSV
  4. W 4–1 v Leipzig
  5. L 1–2 v Augsburg
Freiburg, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Schalke
  2. D 2–2 at Frankfurt
  3. W 5–0 v Gladbach
  4. W 1–0 at Paderborn
  5. W 4–1 v Werder Bremen
Freiburg, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Frankfurt
  2. W 1–0 at Paderborn
  3. L 2–3 at HSV
  4. L 0–4 at Dortmund
  5. W 1–0 at Mainz

Current streaks

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Leverkusen and Freiburg.

How Leverkusen and Freiburg compare this season

StatLeverkusen (home, 3)Freiburg (away, 3)Bundesliga average
Over 1.5100% (3/3)67% (2/3)81%
Over 2.567% (2/3)67% (2/3)74%
Over 3.533% (1/3)33% (1/3)56%
BTTS33% (1/3)67% (2/3)59%
Win %100% (3/3)33% (1/3)52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game2.671.331.84
Goals against per game0.331.331.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

TeamPosPtsP
Leverkusen4136
Freiburg3136

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Leverkusen 2 wins, 2 draws, Freiburg 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 7 Mar 2026BundesligaFreiburg v Leverkusen3–3
Sun, 26 Oct 2025BundesligaLeverkusen v Freiburg2–0
Sun, 4 May 2025BundesligaFreiburg v Leverkusen2–2
Sat, 21 Dec 2024BundesligaLeverkusen v Freiburg5–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Leverkusen v Freiburg?
Our model makes Leverkusen the more likely winner at 59%: Leverkusen 59%, draw 21%, Freiburg 20%. Leverkusen won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leverkusen v Freiburg?
Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Leverkusen games this season.
What is the most likely score?
2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Leverkusen and Freiburg played recently?
Latest first: Leverkusen WWDWL, Freiburg WDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sun, 18 Oct 2026
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