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Burnley FC crest Burnley FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC Wolverhampton Wanderers FC crest prediction

Championship · Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Burnley FC 1–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Wolverhampton Wanderers FC a 29% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–2 a 7% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Burnley FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC prediction (Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Burnley FC 44% · Draw 26% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.49–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Burnley vs Wolves pre-match preview

Burnley (22nd, 8 pts) host Wolves (7th, 18 pts) in the Championship. Burnley have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (DWDLD) and Wolves 7 points from 5 (LLWWD). Burnley: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 league games.

Our model favours Burnley at 44% to Wolves's 29%. Expected goals are 1.49 for Burnley and 1.17 for Wolves, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 50%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Burnley won 1, Wolves won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Burnley FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC?

Burnley FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Burnley FC DWDLDL, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC LLWWDL (latest first).

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Burnley FC44%
Draw26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of the last 4 meetings.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals75%25%1.34
2.5 goals50%50%2.01
3.5 goals28%72%3.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Burnley FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Wolverhampton Wanderers FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Burnley home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes53%1.88
No47%2.14

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Burnley FC win44%2.26
Draw26%3.78
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win29%3.42
Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Burnley FC goals (rows) × Wolverhampton Wanderers FC goals (columns)
Burnley \ Wolverhampton012345
07%8%5%2%1%0%
110%13%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
34%5%3%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
2-19%
2-08%
0-18%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Burnley and Wolves played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Burnley, last 5
  1. D 2–2 v Charlton
  2. W 4–0 at Watford
  3. D 1–1 v Derby County
  4. L 1–3 at Swansea
  5. D 1–1 at Wrexham
Burnley, last 5 at home
  1. D 2–2 v Charlton
  2. D 1–1 v Derby County
  3. L 1–2 v Bristol City
  4. D 1–1 v Middlesbrough
  5. D 2–2 v West Ham
Wolves, last 5
  1. L 1–3 v Bolton
  2. L 0–1 at Middlesbrough
  3. W 1–0 v West Brom
  4. W 1–0 at Sheffield Utd
  5. D 2–2 at Birmingham
Wolves, last 5 away
  1. L 0–1 at Middlesbrough
  2. W 1–0 at Sheffield Utd
  3. D 2–2 at Birmingham
  4. L 2–4 at West Ham
  5. W 3–1 at Preston NE

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Burnley and Wolves.

How Burnley and Wolves compare this season

StatBurnley (home, 6)Wolves (away, 6)Championship average
Over 1.5100% (6/6)67% (4/6)77%
Over 2.567% (4/6)67% (4/6)61%
Over 3.533% (2/6)50% (3/6)36%
BTTS100% (6/6)67% (4/6)64%
Win %0% (0/6)50% (3/6)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game1.331.671.44
Goals against per game1.671.501.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Burnley22811
Wolves71811

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 win, 2 draws, Wolves 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 24 May 2026Premier LeagueBurnley v Wolves1–1
Sun, 26 Oct 2025Premier LeagueWolves v Burnley2–3
Tue, 2 Apr 2024Premier LeagueBurnley v Wolves1–1
Tue, 5 Dec 2023Premier LeagueWolves v Burnley1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Burnley v Wolves?
Our model makes Burnley the more likely winner at 44%: Burnley 44%, draw 26%, Wolves 29%. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burnley v Wolves?
Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 3 of the last 4 meetings.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Burnley and Wolves played recently?
Latest first: Burnley DWDLD, Wolves LLWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
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Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Fri, 16 Oct 2026
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FT · BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt crestFrankfurt11. FC Köln crestKöln0O1.588%✕52%✓21%✕26%✕70%✕88%✕49%✕64%✕
FT · Ligue 1Le Mans FC crestLe Mans0Toulouse FC crestToulouse3O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✓75%✓28%✕56%✕
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FT · La LigaRC Deportivo La Coruña crestDeportivo1Levante UD crestLevante1O1.577%✓41%✕26%✓33%✕53%✕77%✓31%✕55%✓