Swansea City AFC vs West Ham United FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Swansea City AFC 0–1 West Ham United FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave West Ham United FC a 47% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 9% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (47%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (78%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (53%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (69%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Swansea City AFC vs West Ham United FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Swansea City AFC 28% · Draw 25% · West Ham United FC 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.20–1.62. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Swansea vs West Ham pre-match preview

Swansea (1st, 23 pts) host West Ham (2nd, 22 pts) in the Championship. Swansea have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWWWL) and West Ham 11 points from 5 (WDDWW). West Ham are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model favours West Ham at 47% to Swansea's 28%. Expected goals are 1.20 for Swansea and 1.62 for West Ham, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 64% across the Championship.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Swansea City AFC vs West Ham United FC?

West Ham United FC are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a Swansea City AFC win together still account for 53%. Recent form: Swansea City AFC WWWWLD, West Ham United FC WDDWWW (latest first).

West Ham are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Swansea City AFC

28%

Draw

25%

West Ham United FC

47%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 West Ham games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.29
2.5 goals	53%	47%	1.87
3.5 goals	31%	69%	3.21

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Swansea City AFC score in about 70% of simulated outcomes and West Ham United FC in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 West Ham away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.84
No	46%	2.19

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Swansea City AFC win	28%	3.60
Draw	25%	3.94
West Ham United FC win	47%	2.14
Over 2.5	53%	1.87
Under 2.5	47%	2.15

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Swansea City AFC goals (rows) × West Ham United FC goals (columns)
Swansea \ West	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	9%	8%	4%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	7%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

0-1

0-2

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Swansea and West Ham played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Swansea, last 5

Swansea, last 5 at home

West Ham, last 5

West Ham, last 5 away

Current streaks

West Ham are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Swansea and West Ham.

How Swansea and West Ham compare this season

Stat	Swansea (home, 6)	West Ham (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	50% (3/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	33% (2/6)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	17% (1/6)	67% (4/6)	36%
BTTS	33% (2/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	50% (3/6)	50% (3/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.17	2.50	1.44
Goals against per game	0.50	1.17	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Swansea	1	23	11
West Ham	2	22	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Swansea v West Ham?: Our model makes West Ham the more likely winner at 47%: Swansea 28%, draw 25%, West Ham 47%. West Ham are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Swansea v West Ham?: Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 8 of 11 West Ham games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Swansea and West Ham played recently?: Latest first: Swansea WWWWL, West Ham WDDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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