FC Lorient vs AS Monaco FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK

Full-time: FC Lorient 1–0 AS Monaco FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave FC Lorient a 37% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 7% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (37%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (80%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (56%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (66%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (58%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

FC Lorient vs AS Monaco FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UK): FC Lorient 37% · Draw 25% · AS Monaco FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.47–1.47. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lorient vs Monaco pre-match preview

Lorient (7th, 11 pts) host Monaco (5th, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. Lorient have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLDWL) and Monaco 11 points from 5 (DWDWW).

Our model sees little between the sides: Lorient 37%, Monaco 37%. Expected goals are 1.47 for Lorient and 1.47 for Monaco, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Ligue 1 norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. In their last 4 meetings, Lorient won 2, Monaco didn't win any and 2 ended level; all had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win FC Lorient vs AS Monaco FC?

This is close to a coin flip: FC Lorient 37%, AS Monaco FC 37%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: FC Lorient WLDWLD, AS Monaco FC DWDWWW (latest first).

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

FC Lorient

37%

Draw

25%

AS Monaco FC

37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 22 of 34 Monaco games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.78
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.95

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: FC Lorient score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and AS Monaco FC in about 77%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 17 Lorient home games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.73
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Lorient win	37%	2.69
Draw	25%	3.94
AS Monaco FC win	37%	2.67
Over 2.5	56%	1.78
Under 2.5	44%	2.29

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Lorient goals (rows) × AS Monaco FC goals (columns)
FC \ AS	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	7%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%	2%	0%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

2-1

0-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lorient and Monaco played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lorient, last 5

Lorient, last 5 at home

Monaco, last 5

Monaco, last 5 away

How Lorient and Monaco compare this season

Stat	Lorient (home, 4)	Monaco (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	79%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	63%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	38%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	63%
Win %	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.00	0.75	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lorient	7	11	7
Monaco	5	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Lorient 2 wins, 2 draws, Monaco 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 4 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 16 Jan 2026	Ligue 1	Monaco v Lorient	1–3
Sat, 27 Sept 2025	Ligue 1	Lorient v Monaco	3–1
Sun, 17 Mar 2024	Ligue 1	Monaco v Lorient	2–2
Sun, 17 Sept 2023	Ligue 1	Lorient v Monaco	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lorient v Monaco?: Our model makes Monaco the more likely winner at 37%: Lorient 37%, draw 25%, Monaco 37%. Model expects 2.9 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lorient v Monaco?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 22 of 34 Monaco games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lorient and Monaco played recently?: Latest first: Lorient WLDWL, Monaco DWDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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