Udinese Calcio vs AC Milan prediction

Serie A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Udinese Calcio vs AC Milan prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Udinese Calcio 26% · Draw 26% · AC Milan 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.08–1.57. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Udinese vs Milan preview

Udinese (16th, 4 pts) host Milan (4th, 15 pts) in the Serie A. Udinese have taken 0 points from their last 5 games (LLLLL) and Milan 9 points from 5 (WDWDD), so Milan arrive in clearly better form. Milan: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Our model favours Milan at 48% to Udinese's 26%. Expected goals are 1.08 for Udinese and 1.57 for Milan, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 51%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Udinese won 1 and Milan won 4; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Udinese Calcio vs AC Milan?

AC Milan are favoured at 48%, but the draw and a Udinese Calcio win together still account for 52%. Recent form: Udinese Calcio LLLLLW, AC Milan WDWDDW (latest first).

Udinese lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

Udinese Calcio

26%

Draw

26%

AC Milan

48%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 12 of 19 Udinese home games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.34
2.5 goals	49%	51%	2.02
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.63

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Udinese Calcio score in about 66% of simulated outcomes and AC Milan in about 79%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Milan away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Udinese Calcio win	26%	3.88
Draw	26%	3.84
AC Milan win	48%	2.08
Over 2.5	49%	2.02
Under 2.5	51%	1.98

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Udinese Calcio goals (rows) × AC Milan goals (columns)
Udinese \ AC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

11%

1-2

0-2

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Udinese and Milan played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Udinese, last 5

Udinese, last 5 at home

Milan, last 5

Milan, last 5 away

Current streaks

Milan: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.
Milan are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.
Udinese have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Udinese have not won in their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Udinese and Milan.

How Udinese and Milan compare this season

Stat	Udinese (home, 4)	Milan (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	30%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	57%
Win %	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	0.50	1.50	1.48
Goals against per game	1.75	1.25	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Udinese	16	4	7
Milan	4	15	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Udinese 1 win, 0 draws, Milan 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 11 Apr 2026	Serie A	Milan v Udinese	0–3
Sat, 20 Sept 2025	Serie A	Udinese v Milan	0–3
Fri, 11 Apr 2025	Serie A	Udinese v Milan	0–4
Sat, 19 Oct 2024	Serie A	Milan v Udinese	1–0
Sat, 20 Jan 2024	Serie A	Udinese v Milan	2–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Udinese v Milan?: Our model makes Milan the more likely winner at 48%: Udinese 26%, draw 26%, Milan 48%. Udinese lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Milan?: Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 12 of 19 Udinese home games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Udinese and Milan played recently?: Latest first: Udinese LLLLL, Milan WDWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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