Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Paris Saint-Germain FC 66% · Draw 19% · Olympique Lyonnais 15%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.38–1.06. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

PSG vs Lyon preview

PSG (2nd, 14 pts) host Lyon (1st, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. PSG have taken 15 points from their last 5 games (WWWWW) and Lyon 10 points from 5 (WLWDW). PSG are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.

Our model makes PSG clear favourites at 66%, with Lyon at 15%. Expected goals are 2.38 for PSG and 1.06 for Lyon, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Ligue 1 norm: Over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 58%. In their last 5 meetings, PSG won 4 and Lyon won 1; all had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 67%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?

Paris Saint-Germain FC are clear favourites at 66%, with Olympique Lyonnais at 15%. Recent form: Paris Saint-Germain FC WWWWWW, Olympique Lyonnais WLWDWD (latest first).

PSG have won each of their last 4 league games.

Paris Saint-Germain FC

66%

Draw

19%

Olympique Lyonnais

15%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	86%	14%	1.16
2.5 goals	67%	33%	1.50
3.5 goals	45%	55%	2.22

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Paris Saint-Germain FC score in about 91% of simulated outcomes and Olympique Lyonnais in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.73
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Paris Saint-Germain FC win	66%	1.51
Draw	19%	5.36
Olympique Lyonnais win	15%	6.63
Over 2.5	67%	1.50
Under 2.5	33%	3.02

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Paris Saint-Germain FC goals (rows) × Olympique Lyonnais goals (columns)
Paris \ Olympique	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	7%	8%	4%	2%	0%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	7%	8%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	4%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	4% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

10%

2-0

1-1

3-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have PSG and Lyon played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

PSG are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
PSG have won each of their last 4 league games.
Lyon: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Lyon: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
PSG: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
PSG: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
PSG: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. PSG and Lyon.

How PSG and Lyon compare this season

Stat	PSG (home, 2)	Lyon (away, 3)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	100% (2/2)	67% (2/3)	79%
Over 2.5	100% (2/2)	33% (1/3)	63%
Over 3.5	50% (1/2)	0% (0/3)	38%
BTTS	100% (2/2)	33% (1/3)	63%
Win %	50% (1/2)	33% (1/3)	44% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.50	0.67	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
PSG	2	14	7
Lyon	1	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: PSG 4 wins, 0 draws, Lyon 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5; both teams scored in 5 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 19 Apr 2026	Ligue 1	PSG v Lyon	1–2
Sun, 9 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	Lyon v PSG	2–3
Sun, 23 Feb 2025	Ligue 1	Lyon v PSG	2–3
Sun, 15 Dec 2024	Ligue 1	PSG v Lyon	3–1
Sun, 21 Apr 2024	Ligue 1	PSG v Lyon	4–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win PSG v Lyon?: Our model makes PSG the more likely winner at 66%: PSG 66%, draw 19%, Lyon 15%. PSG have won each of their last 4 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in PSG v Lyon?: Over 2.5 goals is 67% and under 2.5 is 33%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 PSG games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have PSG and Lyon played recently?: Latest first: PSG WWWWW, Lyon WLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

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