Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK
Full-time: Olympique Lyonnais 2–1 OGC Nice (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Olympique Lyonnais a 60% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 10% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.
6 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (60%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (79%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (55%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (67%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 1X (82%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Olympique Lyonnais 60% · Draw 22% · OGC Nice 18%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.94–0.95. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Lyon vs Nice pre-match preview
Lyon (1st, 14 pts) host Nice (13th, 8 pts) in the Ligue 1. Lyon have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (LWDWD) and Nice 7 points from 5 (WWLDL). Nice: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Our model makes Lyon clear favourites at 60%, with Nice at 18%. Expected goals are 1.94 for Lyon and 0.95 for Nice, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 55%, against 63% across the Ligue 1. In their last 4 meetings, Lyon won 3 and Nice won 1; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Lyon to win is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Olympique Lyonnais vs OGC Nice?
Olympique Lyonnais are clear favourites at 60%, with OGC Nice at 18%. Recent form: Olympique Lyonnais LWDWDW, OGC Nice WWLDLD (latest first).
Nice lost all 3 away games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 55% and Under 2.5 is 45%.
Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Lyon home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 79% | 21% | 1.27 |
| 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | 1.81 |
| 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | 3.03 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Olympique Lyonnais score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and OGC Nice in about 62%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 3 of 4 Lyon home games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 |
| OGC Nice win | 18% | 5.68 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.9 total goals.
| Olympique \ OGC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 10% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Lyon and Nice played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Nice: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- Nice: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Nice: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Lyon: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Lyon: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Lyon and Nice.
How Lyon and Nice compare this season
| Stat | Lyon (home, 4) | Nice (away, 3) | Ligue 1 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (4/4) | 67% (2/3) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 67% (2/3) | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% (2/4) | 0% (0/3) | 38% |
| BTTS | 75% (3/4) | 33% (1/3) | 63% |
| Win % | 75% (3/4) | 0% (0/3) | 44% home · 32% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.50 | 0.33 | 1.52 |
| Goals against per game | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.52 |
Ligue 1 average from 63 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Ligue 1 table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1 | 14 | 7 |
| Nice | 13 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lyon 3 wins, 0 draws, Nice 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 15 Feb 2026 | Ligue 1 | Lyon v Nice | 2–0 |
| Sat, 18 Oct 2025 | Ligue 1 | Nice v Lyon | 3–2 |
| Sun, 9 Mar 2025 | Ligue 1 | Nice v Lyon | 0–2 |
| Sun, 1 Dec 2024 | Ligue 1 | Lyon v Nice | 4–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Lyon v Nice?
- Our model makes Lyon the more likely winner at 60%: Lyon 60%, draw 22%, Nice 18%. Nice lost all 3 away games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lyon v Nice?
- Over 2.5 goals is 55% and under 2.5 is 45%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Lyon home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Lyon and Nice played recently?
- Latest first: Lyon LWDWD, Nice WWLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Olympique Lyonnais
- OGC Nice
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Ligue 1 table
- Ligue 1 Home win
- Ligue 1 Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.576% | 54% | 24% | 21% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 55% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 44% | 26% | 30% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.579% | 66% | 20% | 14% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 54% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.575% | 45% | 27% | 29% | 49% | 75% | 28% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.578% | 58% | 23% | 19% | 54% | 78% | 31% | 55% |
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.587% | 48% | 22% | 29% | 68% | 87% | 47% | 61% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574%✕ | 45%✓ | 27%✕ | 29%✕ | 48%✕ | 74%✕ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585%✓ | 28%✓ | 23%✕ | 49%✕ | 65%✓ | 85%✓ | 43%✓ | 61%✓ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.580%✓ | 53%✕ | 27%✕ | 20%✓ | 41%✓ | 68%✓ | 20%✕ | 48%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.587%✓ | 48%✓ | 22%✕ | 30%✕ | 68%✕ | 87%✓ | 46%✕ | 60%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.586%✓ | 22%✕ | 21%✓ | 56%✕ | 66%✓ | 86%✓ | 44%✓ | 60%✓ |