ProbaPredict

Crystal Palace FC crest Crystal Palace FC vs Newcastle United FC Newcastle United FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Crystal Palace FC vs Newcastle United FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Crystal Palace FC 38% · Draw 26% · Newcastle United FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.53–1.51. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle preview

Crystal Palace (14th, 7 pts) host Newcastle (11th, 8 pts) in the Premier League. Crystal Palace have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LWDLW) and Newcastle 4 points from 5 (LLWLD).

Our model sees little between the sides: Crystal Palace 38%, Newcastle 37%. Expected goals are 1.53 for Crystal Palace and 1.51 for Newcastle, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 59%. In their last 5 meetings, Crystal Palace won 2, Newcastle won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Crystal Palace FC vs Newcastle United FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Crystal Palace FC 38%, Newcastle United FC 37%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Crystal Palace FC LWDLWL, Newcastle United FC LLWLDW (latest first).

Newcastle lost 2 of 3 away games this season.

Crystal Palace FC38%
Draw26%
Newcastle United FC37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Crystal Palace home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals81%19%1.23
2.5 goals59%41%1.71
3.5 goals36%64%2.77

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Crystal Palace FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Newcastle United FC in about 78%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Crystal Palace home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes59%1.68
No41%2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Crystal Palace FC win38%2.66
Draw26%3.88
Newcastle United FC win37%2.73
Over 2.559%1.71
Under 2.541%2.41

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Crystal Palace FC goals (rows) × Newcastle United FC goals (columns)
Crystal \ Newcastle012345
06%6%5%3%1%0%
17%12%8%4%2%0%
26%8%6%3%1%0%
33%4%3%2%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
2-18%
1-28%
1-07%
0-16%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Crystal Palace and Newcastle played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Crystal Palace, last 5
  1. L 0–5 at Brighton
  2. W 3–1 v Nottingham
  3. D 0–0 at Leeds
  4. L 2–3 v Ipswich Town
  5. W 3–2 at Fulham
Crystal Palace, last 5 at home
  1. W 3–1 v Nottingham
  2. L 2–3 v Ipswich Town
  3. L 1–4 v Man City
  4. L 1–2 v Arsenal
  5. D 2–2 v Everton
Newcastle, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v Aston Villa
  2. L 1–4 at Coventry City
  3. W 2–1 v Hull City
  4. L 1–4 at Leeds
  5. D 2–2 v Bournemouth
Newcastle, last 5 away
  1. L 1–4 at Coventry City
  2. L 1–4 at Leeds
  3. W 2–0 at Tottenham
  4. L 0–2 at Fulham
  5. D 1–1 at Nottingham

How Crystal Palace and Newcastle compare this season

StatCrystal Palace (home, 3)Newcastle (away, 3)Premier League average
Over 1.5100% (3/3)100% (3/3)76%
Over 2.5100% (3/3)67% (2/3)54%
Over 3.5100% (3/3)67% (2/3)36%
BTTS100% (3/3)67% (2/3)53%
Win %33% (1/3)33% (1/3)40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game2.001.331.45
Goals against per game2.672.671.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Crystal Palace1477
Newcastle1187

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Crystal Palace 2 wins, 1 draw, Newcastle 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 12 Apr 2026Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Newcastle2–1
Sun, 4 Jan 2026Premier LeagueNewcastle v Crystal Palace2–0
Wed, 16 Apr 2025Premier LeagueNewcastle v Crystal Palace5–0
Sat, 30 Nov 2024Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Newcastle1–1
Wed, 24 Apr 2024Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Newcastle2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Crystal Palace v Newcastle?
Our model makes Crystal Palace the more likely winner at 38%: Crystal Palace 38%, draw 26%, Newcastle 37%. Newcastle lost 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace v Newcastle?
Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 3 Crystal Palace home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Crystal Palace and Newcastle played recently?
Latest first: Crystal Palace LWDLW, Newcastle LLWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026
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Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
01:00 · BrasileirãoSantos FC crestSantosEC Bahia crestBahiaO1.578%42%26%32%54%78%32%53%
11:15 · EredivisieFortuna Sittard crestSittardSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorO1.581%44%25%31%59%81%37%59%
11:30 · Serie AFC Internazionale Milano crestInterACF Fiorentina crestFiorentinaO1.586%72%16%11%68%86%46%53%
13:00 · La LigaAthletic Club crestAthleticGetafe CF crestGetafeU3.590%45%33%22%26%53%10%46%
13:30 · EredivisieNEC crestNECFC Groningen crestGroningenO1.585%52%22%25%65%85%43%60%