AZ vs FC Twente '65 prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK

AZ vs FC Twente '65 prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 19:00 UK): AZ 42% · Draw 26% · FC Twente '65 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.50–1.30. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

AZ vs Twente preview

AZ (2nd, 20 pts) host Twente (5th, 17 pts) in the Eredivisie. AZ have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DLWDW) and Twente 10 points from 5 (LDWWW). Twente: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: AZ 42%, Twente 32%. Expected goals are 1.50 for AZ and 1.30 for Twente, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 53%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, AZ won 3, Twente won 1 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AZ vs FC Twente '65?

AZ are favoured at 42%, but the draw and a FC Twente '65 win together still account for 58%. Recent form: AZ DLWDWW, FC Twente '65 LDWWWD (latest first).

AZ won 3 of 4 home games this season.

42%

Draw

26%

FC Twente '65

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 53% and Under 2.5 is 47%.

Over 2.5 in 13 of 17 AZ home games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	77%	23%	1.29
2.5 goals	53%	47%	1.89
3.5 goals	31%	69%	3.25

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: AZ score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and FC Twente '65 in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Twente away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.74
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AZ win	42%	2.40
Draw	26%	3.85
FC Twente '65 win	32%	3.09
Over 2.5	53%	1.89
Under 2.5	47%	2.13

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AZ goals (rows) × FC Twente '65 goals (columns)
AZ \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

2-1

1-0

1-2

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have AZ and Twente played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Twente: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Twente: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. AZ and Twente.

How AZ and Twente compare this season

Stat	AZ (home, 4)	Twente (away, 4)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	91%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	75%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	63%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	72%
Win %	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.75	1.92
Goals against per game	0.75	1.25	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
AZ	2	20	9
Twente	5	17	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: AZ 3 wins, 1 draw, Twente 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 3 May 2026	Eredivisie	AZ v Twente	2–2
Sun, 30 Nov 2025	Eredivisie	Twente v AZ	1–0
Wed, 14 May 2025	Eredivisie	Twente v AZ	2–3
Sat, 21 Dec 2024	Eredivisie	AZ v Twente	1–0
Sun, 5 May 2024	Eredivisie	AZ v Twente	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win AZ v Twente?: Our model makes AZ the more likely winner at 42%: AZ 42%, draw 26%, Twente 32%. AZ won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AZ v Twente?: Over 2.5 goals is 53% and under 2.5 is 47%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 13 of 17 AZ home games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have AZ and Twente played recently?: Latest first: AZ DLWDW, Twente LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

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