SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK

SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK): SC Freiburg 14% · Draw 16% · FC Bayern München 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%. Most likely score: 1-2. Expected goals 1.25–2.79. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 63%, No 37%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (7%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Freiburg vs Bayern preview

Freiburg (3rd, 13 pts) host Bayern (1st, 14 pts) in the Bundesliga. Freiburg have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LWDWW) and Bayern 9 points from 5 (DWDDW). Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.

Our model makes Bayern clear favourites at 69%, with Freiburg at 14%. Expected goals are 1.25 for Freiburg and 2.79 for Bayern, and the most likely score is 1-2 (9%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 63%. In their last 5 meetings, Freiburg didn't win any, Bayern won 4 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München?

FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 69%, with SC Freiburg at 14%. Recent form: SC Freiburg LWDWWW, FC Bayern München DWDDWW (latest first).

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.

SC Freiburg

14%

Draw

16%

FC Bayern München

69%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 77%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Freiburg home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	91%	9%	1.10
2.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
3.5 goals	57%	43%	1.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance: SC Freiburg score in about 73% of simulated outcomes and FC Bayern München in about 94%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Freiburg games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	63%	1.57
No	37%	2.74

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SC Freiburg win	14%	6.92
Draw	16%	6.13
FC Bayern München win	69%	1.44
Over 2.5	77%	1.30
Under 2.5	23%	4.30

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 4.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SC Freiburg goals (rows) × FC Bayern München goals (columns)
SC \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2%	5%	7%	6%	4%	2%
1	2%	6%	9%	8%	6%	3%
2	1%	4%	5%	5%	3%	2%
3	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%
4	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	7% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-2

1-3

0-2

1-1

0-3

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Freiburg and Bayern played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Freiburg, last 5

Freiburg, last 5 at home

Bayern, last 5

Bayern, last 5 away

Current streaks

Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.
Bayern: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Bayern: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Freiburg: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Freiburg: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Freiburg: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Freiburg and Bayern.

How Freiburg and Bayern compare this season

Stat	Freiburg (home, 3)	Bayern (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	59%
Win %	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	3.67	1.33	1.84
Goals against per game	0.67	1.00	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Freiburg	3	13	6
Bayern	1	14	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 0 wins, 1 draw, Bayern 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 4 Apr 2026	Bundesliga	Freiburg v Bayern	2–3
Sat, 22 Nov 2025	Bundesliga	Bayern v Freiburg	6–2
Sat, 25 Jan 2025	Bundesliga	Freiburg v Bayern	1–2
Sun, 1 Sept 2024	Bundesliga	Bayern v Freiburg	2–0
Fri, 1 Mar 2024	Bundesliga	Freiburg v Bayern	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Freiburg v Bayern?: Our model makes Bayern the more likely winner at 69%: Freiburg 14%, draw 16%, Bayern 69%. Bayern are unbeaten in their last 21 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Freiburg v Bayern?: Over 2.5 goals is 77% and under 2.5 is 23%, with expected goals of 4.0. Over 2.5 in all 3 Freiburg home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-2 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Freiburg and Bayern played recently?: Latest first: Freiburg LWDWW, Bayern DWDDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeipzigvElversberg	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaPaderbornvHSV	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%

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