Sunderland AFC vs Leeds United FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK

Sunderland AFC vs Leeds United FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UK): Sunderland AFC 34% · Draw 28% · Leeds United FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.25–1.31. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Sunderland vs Leeds preview

Sunderland (20th, 4 pts) host Leeds (7th, 10 pts) in the Premier League. Sunderland have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLLD) and Leeds 6 points from 5 (DLDWD). Sunderland: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Sunderland 34%, Leeds 37%. Expected goals are 1.25 for Sunderland and 1.31 for Leeds, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 56%. In their last 5 meetings, Sunderland won 1, Leeds won 1 and 3 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Sunderland AFC vs Leeds United FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Sunderland AFC 34%, Leeds United FC 37%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: Sunderland AFC LLLLDW, Leeds United FC DLDWDD (latest first).

Sunderland lost 2 of 3 home games this season.

Sunderland AFC

34%

Draw

28%

Leeds United FC

37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Under 2.5 in all 3 Sunderland home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.36
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.11
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.89

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: Sunderland AFC score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Leeds United FC in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Leeds games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	56%	1.78
No	44%	2.28

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Sunderland AFC win	34%	2.91
Draw	28%	3.51
Leeds United FC win	37%	2.69
Over 2.5	47%	2.11
Under 2.5	53%	1.90

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sunderland AFC goals (rows) × Leeds United FC goals (columns)
Sunderland \ Leeds	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	9%	14%	8%	4%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

0-1

1-0

0-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Sunderland and Leeds played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Sunderland, last 5

Sunderland, last 5 at home

Leeds, last 5

Leeds, last 5 away

Current streaks

Sunderland: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Sunderland have not won in their last 5 league games.
Sunderland have lost each of their last 4 league games.
Leeds have not won in their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Sunderland and Leeds.

How Sunderland and Leeds compare this season

Stat	Sunderland (home, 3)	Leeds (away, 3)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	76%
Over 2.5	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	54%
Over 3.5	0% (0/3)	0% (0/3)	36%
BTTS	0% (0/3)	67% (2/3)	53%
Win %	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	0.33	1.00	1.45
Goals against per game	1.33	1.00	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Sunderland	20	4	7
Leeds	7	10	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Sunderland 1 win, 3 draws, Leeds 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Tue, 3 Mar 2026	Premier League	Leeds v Sunderland	0–1
Sun, 28 Dec 2025	Premier League	Sunderland v Leeds	1–1
Mon, 17 Feb 2025	Championship	Leeds v Sunderland	2–1
Fri, 4 Oct 2024	Championship	Sunderland v Leeds	2–2
Tue, 9 Apr 2024	Championship	Leeds v Sunderland	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sunderland v Leeds?: Our model makes Leeds the more likely winner at 37%: Sunderland 34%, draw 28%, Leeds 37%. Sunderland lost 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Leeds?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in all 3 Sunderland home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Sunderland and Leeds played recently?: Latest first: Sunderland LLLLD, Leeds DLDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

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