US Lecce vs Juventus FC prediction

Serie A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK

US Lecce vs Juventus FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK): US Lecce 18% · Draw 28% · Juventus FC 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 0-1. Expected goals 0.73–1.45. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 47%, No 53%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (16%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lecce vs Juventus preview

Lecce (12th, 9 pts) host Juventus (8th, 11 pts) in the Serie A. Lecce have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLLWL) and Juventus 5 points from 5 (LDWLD). Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Juventus clear favourites at 54%, with Lecce at 18%. Expected goals are 0.73 for Lecce and 1.45 for Juventus, and the most likely score is 0-1 (16%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 63%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Lecce didn't win any, Juventus won 3 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 63%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win US Lecce vs Juventus FC?

Juventus FC are clear favourites at 54%, with US Lecce at 18%. Recent form: US Lecce WLLWLL, Juventus FC LDWLDW (latest first).

Lecce lost 2 of 3 home games this season.

US Lecce

18%

Draw

28%

Juventus FC

54%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 63%; Over 2.5 is 37%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Juventus games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	65%	35%	1.55
2.5 goals	37%	63%	2.67
3.5 goals	18%	82%	5.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance: US Lecce score in about 52% of simulated outcomes and Juventus FC in about 77%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	47%	2.13
No	53%	1.88

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
US Lecce win	18%	5.42
Draw	28%	3.62
Juventus FC win	54%	1.85
Over 2.5	37%	2.67
Under 2.5	63%	1.60

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: US Lecce goals (rows) × Juventus FC goals (columns)
US \ Juventus	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12%	16%	12%	6%	2%	1%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	0%
2	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
3	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

0-1

16%

1-1

12%

0-2

12%

0-0

12%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lecce and Juventus played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lecce, last 5

Lecce, last 5 at home

Juventus, last 5

Juventus, last 5 away

Current streaks

Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Lecce: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lecce: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Lecce and Juventus.

How Lecce and Juventus compare this season

Stat	Lecce (home, 3)	Juventus (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	84%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	60%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	30%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	57%
Win %	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.33	1.33	1.48
Goals against per game	2.67	1.33	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lecce	12	9	7
Juventus	8	11	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Lecce 0 wins, 2 draws, Juventus 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 9 May 2026	Serie A	Lecce v Juventus	0–1
Sat, 3 Jan 2026	Serie A	Juventus v Lecce	1–1
Sat, 12 Apr 2025	Serie A	Juventus v Lecce	2–1
Sun, 1 Dec 2024	Serie A	Lecce v Juventus	1–1
Sun, 21 Jan 2024	Serie A	Lecce v Juventus	0–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lecce v Juventus?: Our model makes Juventus the more likely winner at 54%: Lecce 18%, draw 28%, Juventus 54%. Lecce lost 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Juventus?: Over 2.5 goals is 37% and under 2.5 is 63%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in 5 of 7 Juventus games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 0-1 at 16%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lecce and Juventus played recently?: Latest first: Lecce WLLWL, Juventus LDWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
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19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
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