Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Lincoln City FC 22% · Draw 25% · Burnley FC 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 0.96–1.64. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lincoln City vs Burnley preview

Lincoln City (18th, 12 pts) host Burnley (22nd, 8 pts) in the Championship. Lincoln City have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DLLLW) and Burnley 5 points from 5 (LDWDL). Burnley: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 league games.

Our model makes Burnley clear favourites at 53%, with Lincoln City at 22%. Expected goals are 0.96 for Lincoln City and 1.64 for Burnley, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5.

Burnley to win is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC?

Burnley FC are clear favourites at 53%, with Lincoln City FC at 22%. Recent form: Lincoln City FC DLLLWW, Burnley FC LDWDLD (latest first).

Lincoln City lost 3 of 5 home games this season.

Lincoln City FC

22%

Draw

25%

Burnley FC

53%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.36
2.5 goals	48%	52%	2.08
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.80

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Lincoln City FC score in about 62% of simulated outcomes and Burnley FC in about 81%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 10 of 11 Burnley games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Lincoln City FC win	22%	4.61
Draw	25%	3.92
Burnley FC win	53%	1.89
Over 2.5	48%	2.08
Under 2.5	52%	1.92

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Lincoln City FC goals (rows) × Burnley FC goals (columns)
Lincoln \ Burnley	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
1	7%	12%	10%	5%	2%	1%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

0-1

12%

0-2

10%

1-2

10%

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lincoln City and Burnley played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lincoln City, last 5

Lincoln City, last 5 at home

Burnley, last 5

Burnley, last 5 away

Current streaks

Burnley: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 league games.
Lincoln City: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lincoln City: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lincoln City have not won in their last 4 league games.
Burnley: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Lincoln City and Burnley.

How Lincoln City and Burnley compare this season

Stat	Lincoln City (home, 5)	Burnley (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	100% (5/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	61%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	80% (4/5)	36%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	64%
Win %	0% (0/5)	20% (1/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	0.60	1.60	1.44
Goals against per game	2.40	2.20	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lincoln City	18	12	11
Burnley	22	8	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lincoln City v Burnley?: Our model makes Burnley the more likely winner at 53%: Lincoln City 22%, draw 25%, Burnley 53%. Lincoln City lost 3 of 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lincoln City v Burnley?: Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Model expects 2.6 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lincoln City and Burnley played recently?: Latest first: Lincoln City DLLLW, Burnley LDWDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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