ProbaPredict

West Ham United FC crest West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC Southampton FC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): West Ham United FC 56% · Draw 22% · Southampton FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.06–1.22. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 56%, No 44%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

West Ham vs Southampton preview

West Ham (2nd, 22 pts) host Southampton (8th, 17 pts) in the Championship. West Ham have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WWDDW) and Southampton 10 points from 5 (DWWLW). West Ham are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model makes West Ham clear favourites at 56%, with Southampton at 22%. Expected goals are 2.06 for West Ham and 1.22 for Southampton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Championship norm: Over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 56%. In their last 5 meetings, West Ham won 2, Southampton won 1 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 64%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC?

West Ham United FC are clear favourites at 56%, with Southampton FC at 22%. Recent form: West Ham United FC WWDDWW, Southampton FC DWWLWW (latest first).

West Ham won 3 of 5 home games this season.

West Ham United FC56%
Draw22%
Southampton FC22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 64% and Under 2.5 is 36%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 West Ham home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals84%16%1.19
2.5 goals64%36%1.57
3.5 goals42%58%2.41

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance: West Ham United FC score in about 87% of simulated outcomes and Southampton FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Southampton away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes56%1.77
No44%2.30

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
West Ham United FC win56%1.77
Draw22%4.59
Southampton FC win22%4.59
Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.75

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: West Ham United FC goals (rows) × Southampton FC goals (columns)
West \ Southampton012345
04%4%3%1%0%0%
17%10%6%2%1%0%
28%10%6%2%1%0%
35%7%4%2%1%0%
43%3%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-110%
2-110%
2-08%
1-07%
3-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have West Ham and Southampton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

West Ham, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Swansea
  2. W 6–0 at Lincoln City
  3. D 1–1 v QPR
  4. D 2–2 at Millwall
  5. W 6–0 v Wrexham
West Ham, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v QPR
  2. W 6–0 v Wrexham
  3. W 3–0 v Derby County
  4. W 4–2 v Wolves
  5. L 1–2 v Charlton
Southampton, last 5
  1. D 0–0 v Bolton
  2. W 1–0 at Norwich
  3. W 1–0 v Portsmouth
  4. L 1–2 at Wrexham
  5. W 4–1 v Bristol City
Southampton, last 5 away
  1. W 1–0 at Norwich
  2. L 1–2 at Wrexham
  3. D 1–1 at Lincoln City
  4. D 1–1 at Birmingham
  5. L 1–2 at Watford

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. West Ham and Southampton.

How West Ham and Southampton compare this season

StatWest Ham (home, 5)Southampton (away, 5)Championship average
Over 1.5100% (5/5)80% (4/5)77%
Over 2.580% (4/5)40% (2/5)61%
Over 3.540% (2/5)0% (0/5)36%
BTTS60% (3/5)80% (4/5)64%
Win %60% (3/5)20% (1/5)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game3.001.001.44
Goals against per game1.001.201.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
West Ham22211
Southampton81711

Includes a 4-point deduction for Southampton.

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: West Ham 2 wins, 2 draws, Southampton 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 19 Apr 2025Premier LeagueWest Ham v Southampton1–1
Thu, 26 Dec 2024Premier LeagueSouthampton v West Ham0–1
Sun, 2 Apr 2023Premier LeagueWest Ham v Southampton1–0
Sun, 16 Oct 2022Premier LeagueSouthampton v West Ham1–1
Sun, 26 Dec 2021Premier LeagueWest Ham v Southampton2–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win West Ham v Southampton?
Our model makes West Ham the more likely winner at 56%: West Ham 56%, draw 22%, Southampton 22%. West Ham won 3 of 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in West Ham v Southampton?
Over 2.5 goals is 64% and under 2.5 is 36%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 West Ham home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have West Ham and Southampton played recently?
Latest first: West Ham WWDDW, Southampton DWWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampCardiff City FC crestCardiffBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamO1.575%34%27%39%50%75%28%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampQueens Park Rangers FC crestQPRSwansea City AFC crestSwanseaU3.575%37%28%35%46%72%25%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokeBristol City FC crestBristol CityU3.578%40%29%31%42%69%22%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
13:00 · La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid crestRayo VallecanoElche CF crestElcheU3.579%44%28%27%42%69%21%51%
14:00 · Serie ACagliari Calcio crestCagliariBologna FC 1909 crestBolognaU3.579%32%29%39%42%69%21%50%
14:00 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907US Sassuolo Calcio crestSassuoloO1.582%61%21%18%60%82%38%53%