Southampton FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Southampton FC 0–0 Bolton Wanderers FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 20% chance, and the exact score 0–0 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (61%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (58%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 2-1 (9%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (81%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (87%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (69%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (52%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Southampton FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Southampton FC 61% · Draw 20% · Bolton Wanderers FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.31–1.25. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Southampton vs Bolton pre-match preview

Southampton (8th, 17 pts) host Bolton (15th, 14 pts) in the Championship. Southampton have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWLWW) and Bolton 9 points from 5 (WLWWL). Southampton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Southampton clear favourites at 61%, with Bolton at 19%. Expected goals are 2.31 for Southampton and 1.25 for Bolton, and the most likely score is 2-1 (9%).

The goal markets sit close to the Championship norm: Over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 58%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 69%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Southampton FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC?

Southampton FC are clear favourites at 61%, with Bolton Wanderers FC at 19%. Recent form: Southampton FC WWLWWD, Bolton Wanderers FC WLWWLL (latest first).

Southampton won 5 of 6 home games this season.

Southampton FC

61%

Draw

20%

Bolton Wanderers FC

19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 69%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Southampton home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	87%	13%	1.15
2.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
3.5 goals	48%	52%	2.11

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Southampton FC score in about 90% of simulated outcomes and Bolton Wanderers FC in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 8 of 11 Southampton games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.74
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Southampton FC win	61%	1.65
Draw	20%	5.03
Bolton Wanderers FC win	19%	5.17
Over 2.5	69%	1.45
Under 2.5	31%	3.22

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Southampton FC goals (rows) × Bolton Wanderers FC goals (columns)
Southampton \ Bolton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	6%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
4	3%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
5	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

1-1

2-0

3-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Southampton and Bolton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Southampton, last 5

Southampton, last 5 at home

Bolton, last 5

Bolton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Southampton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Southampton are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Southampton and Bolton.

How Southampton and Bolton compare this season

Stat	Southampton (home, 6)	Bolton (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	50% (3/6)	64%
Win %	83% (5/6)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.67	1.50	1.44
Goals against per game	0.67	1.83	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Southampton	8	17	11
Bolton	15	14	11

Includes a 4-point deduction for Southampton.

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Southampton v Bolton?: Our model makes Southampton the more likely winner at 61%: Southampton 61%, draw 20%, Bolton 19%. Southampton won 5 of 6 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Southampton v Bolton?: Over 2.5 goals is 69% and under 2.5 is 31%, with expected goals of 3.6. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Southampton home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Southampton and Bolton played recently?: Latest first: Southampton WWLWW, Bolton WLWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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