Win & over 2.5 predictions this weekend

Football predictions for win & over 2.5, ranked from the highest model probability down.

Win & Over 2.5 needs both parts in one result: one team wins and the match has three or more goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. What does Over 2.5 goals mean?

51% is the highest Win & Over 2.5 probability this weekend: FC Bayern München win & Over 2.5 in SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.

These are this weekend's Win & Over 2.5 predictions, ranked by the model's probability that both parts happen. Combination picks are not graded yet, so read them as the model's numbers, not a track record.

Today Tomorrow Weekend Yesterday's record

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Win & Over 2.5 predictions this weekend, ranked by probability
		Fair odds
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
Bundesliga
17:30DortmundvFrankfurtModel expects 3.7 total goals	Dortmund48%	2.06	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%
14:30LeipzigvElversbergModel expects 3.5 total goals	Leipzig43%	2.35	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30MainzvWerder BremenModel expects 2.9 total goals	Mainz33%	3.03	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30AugsburgvUnion BerlinModel expects 2.8 total goals	Augsburg31%	3.27	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30PaderbornvHSVModel expects 3.0 total goals	Paderborn27%	3.72	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
14:30KölnvSchalkeModel expects 2.6 total goals	Köln26%	3.88	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
La Liga
20:00AtletivDeportivoModel expects 3.1 total goals	Atleti44%	2.25	O1.581%	69%	19%	12%	81%	59%	36%	53%	59%	81%	36%	53%
17:30ValenciavVillarrealModel expects 2.9 total goals	Villarreal28%	3.57	O1.579%	30%	25%	44%	79%	55%	33%	56%	55%	79%	33%	56%
15:15SantandervEspanyolModel expects 3.2 total goals	Santander28%	3.61	O1.583%	41%	24%	35%	83%	61%	39%	58%	61%	83%	39%	58%
13:00Rayo VallecanovElcheModel expects 2.4 total goals	Rayo Vallecano23%	4.37	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
Eredivisie
15:30UtrechtvZwolleModel expects 3.4 total goals	Utrecht44%	2.28	O1.585%	63%	20%	17%	85%	65%	43%	59%	65%	85%	43%	59%
20:00Den HaagvHeerenveenModel expects 3.1 total goals	Heerenveen27%	3.67	O1.581%	34%	25%	41%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
17:45Willem IIvCambuurModel expects 3.2 total goals	Cambuur27%	3.75	O1.583%	36%	24%	39%	83%	61%	39%	60%	61%	83%	39%	60%
Serie A
14:00Como 1907vSassuoloModel expects 3.1 total goals	Como 190741%	2.45	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
19:45LaziovParmaModel expects 2.3 total goals	Lazio29%	3.47	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
14:00CagliarivBolognaModel expects 2.4 total goals	Bologna20%	5.04	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
17:00NapolivRomaModel expects 2.4 total goals	Napoli18%	5.46	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
Championship
15:00West HamvSouthamptonModel expects 3.3 total goals	West Ham39%	2.55	O1.584%	56%	22%	22%	84%	64%	42%	56%	64%	84%	42%	56%
15:00WolvesvWatfordModel expects 2.7 total goals	Wolves35%	2.88	O1.575%	59%	24%	18%	75%	50%	28%	52%	50%	75%	28%	52%
15:00Lincoln CityvBurnleyModel expects 2.6 total goals	Burnley30%	3.29	U3.574%	22%	25%	53%	74%	48%	26%	52%	48%	74%	26%	52%
12:30Sheffield UtdvDerby CountyModel expects 2.7 total goals	Sheffield Utd30%	3.35	O1.576%	50%	25%	25%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%
15:00CardiffvBirminghamModel expects 2.7 total goals	Birmingham23%	4.40	O1.575%	34%	27%	39%	75%	50%	28%	54%	50%	75%	28%	54%
15:00BlackburnvWrexhamModel expects 2.6 total goals	Blackburn23%	4.43	O1.575%	39%	27%	34%	75%	49%	27%	53%	49%	75%	27%	53%
12:30CharltonvNorwichModel expects 2.5 total goals	Norwich22%	4.63	U3.577%	32%	28%	40%	71%	45%	23%	52%	45%	71%	23%	52%
15:00StokevBristol CityModel expects 2.4 total goals	Stoke21%	4.80	U3.578%	40%	29%	31%	69%	42%	22%	51%	42%	69%	22%	51%
15:00QPRvSwanseaModel expects 2.5 total goals	QPR20%	4.93	U3.575%	37%	28%	35%	72%	46%	25%	53%	46%	72%	25%	53%
15:00Preston NEvWest BromModel expects 2.3 total goals	West Brom20%	4.99	U3.579%	31%	29%	40%	68%	41%	21%	51%	41%	68%	21%	51%
12:30PortsmouthvMillwallModel expects 2.4 total goals	Millwall19%	5.17	U3.578%	34%	29%	37%	70%	43%	22%	51%	43%	70%	22%	51%
Brasileirão Série A
23:30ChapecoensevFluminenseModel expects 2.9 total goals	Fluminense37%	2.70	O1.579%	19%	23%	58%	79%	56%	33%	52%	56%	79%	33%	52%
00:00CruzeirovClube do RemoModel expects 2.8 total goals	Cruzeiro37%	2.72	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
22:30PalmeirasvBragantinoModel expects 2.6 total goals	Palmeiras36%	2.75	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
20:30MirassolvSão PauloModel expects 2.4 total goals	Mirassol24%	4.22	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30VitóriavParanaenseModel expects 2.5 total goals	Paranaense23%	4.35	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30Vasco da GamavCorinthiansModel expects 2.5 total goals	Vasco da Gama23%	4.37	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%
20:30InternacionalvBotafogoModel expects 2.5 total goals	Botafogo20%	4.94	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
Premier League
17:30ChelseavTottenhamModel expects 3.1 total goals	Chelsea36%	2.76	O1.582%	54%	24%	22%	82%	60%	37%	59%	60%	82%	37%	59%
15:00ArsenalvEvertonModel expects 2.4 total goals	Arsenal34%	2.92	U3.577%	64%	24%	12%	71%	44%	23%	51%	44%	71%	23%	51%
12:30Aston VillavMan CityModel expects 3.0 total goals	Man City31%	3.18	O1.581%	27%	25%	48%	81%	57%	35%	59%	57%	81%	35%	59%
15:00Coventry CityvFulhamModel expects 2.7 total goals	Fulham22%	4.59	O1.575%	36%	27%	37%	75%	50%	28%	57%	50%	75%	28%	57%
Ligue 1
19:45LensvParisModel expects 2.7 total goals	Lens33%	3.06	O1.576%	54%	24%	21%	76%	51%	29%	55%	51%	76%	29%	55%
Primeira Liga
20:30Gil VicentevPortoModel expects 2.3 total goals	Porto27%	3.71	U3.581%	18%	27%	54%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
15:30AmadoravCasa PiaModel expects 2.5 total goals	Amadora26%	3.82	U3.576%	47%	27%	25%	71%	45%	24%	50%	45%	71%	24%	50%
18:00AlvercavAroucaModel expects 2.8 total goals	Alverca26%	3.86	O1.578%	42%	26%	32%	78%	53%	31%	53%	53%	78%	31%	53%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
Bundesliga
16:30FreiburgvBayernModel expects 4.0 total goals	Bayern51%	1.95	O1.591%	14%	16%	69%	91%	77%	57%	63%	77%	91%	57%	63%
14:30HoffenheimvLeverkusenModel expects 3.6 total goals	Leverkusen37%	2.72	O1.588%	28%	22%	50%	88%	70%	48%	64%	70%	88%	48%	64%
Serie A
11:30IntervFiorentinaModel expects 3.5 total goals	Inter50%	2.00	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00AtalantavFrosinoneModel expects 2.9 total goals	Atalanta36%	2.78	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
19:45UdinesevMilanModel expects 2.7 total goals	Milan28%	3.53	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	28%	52%	49%	75%	28%	52%
17:00LeccevJuventusModel expects 2.2 total goals	Juventus26%	3.87	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
14:00GenoavVeneziaModel expects 2.5 total goals	Genoa22%	4.63	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
Primeira Liga
20:30Sporting CPvAcad. ViseuModel expects 3.3 total goals	Sporting CP49%	2.05	O1.585%	72%	17%	11%	85%	65%	43%	51%	65%	85%	43%	51%
18:00NacionalvBragaModel expects 2.8 total goals	Braga33%	3.05	O1.576%	22%	24%	54%	76%	52%	30%	51%	52%	76%	30%	51%
15:30Estoril PraiavMoreirenseModel expects 2.8 total goals	Estoril Praia28%	3.52	O1.577%	47%	26%	28%	77%	52%	30%	52%	52%	77%	30%	52%
18:00Rio AvevFamalicãoModel expects 2.4 total goals	Famalicão23%	4.33	U3.578%	28%	28%	44%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%
Ligue 1
19:45PSGvLyonModel expects 3.4 total goals	PSG46%	2.15	O1.586%	66%	19%	15%	86%	67%	45%	58%	67%	86%	45%	58%
16:15MarseillevLe HavreModel expects 2.9 total goals	Marseille41%	2.42	O1.579%	66%	20%	14%	79%	56%	34%	54%	56%	79%	34%	54%
16:15ToulousevTroyesModel expects 2.8 total goals	Toulouse36%	2.77	O1.578%	58%	23%	19%	78%	54%	31%	55%	54%	78%	31%	55%
16:15Stade RennaisvStrasbourgModel expects 3.5 total goals	Stade Rennais35%	2.83	O1.587%	48%	22%	29%	87%	68%	47%	61%	68%	87%	47%	61%
14:00MonacovLilleModel expects 2.8 total goals	Monaco27%	3.69	O1.577%	44%	26%	30%	77%	53%	30%	56%	53%	77%	30%	56%
16:15AuxerrevLe MansModel expects 2.7 total goals	Auxerre26%	3.82	O1.575%	45%	27%	29%	75%	49%	28%	55%	49%	75%	28%	55%
16:15Angers SCOvLorientModel expects 2.5 total goals	Lorient24%	4.25	U3.577%	29%	28%	43%	71%	45%	23%	54%	45%	71%	23%	54%
Eredivisie
13:30PSVvFeyenoordModel expects 4.0 total goals	PSV42%	2.38	O1.591%	55%	20%	25%	91%	76%	56%	64%	76%	91%	56%	64%
13:30NECvGroningenModel expects 3.3 total goals	NEC37%	2.72	O1.585%	52%	22%	25%	85%	65%	43%	60%	65%	85%	43%	60%
15:45SpartavAjaxModel expects 3.2 total goals	Ajax36%	2.78	O1.583%	24%	23%	53%	83%	61%	39%	59%	61%	83%	39%	59%
11:15SittardvExcelsiorModel expects 3.1 total goals	Sittard29%	3.42	O1.581%	44%	25%	31%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
19:00AZvTwenteModel expects 2.8 total goals	AZ26%	3.90	O1.577%	42%	26%	32%	77%	53%	31%	58%	53%	77%	31%	58%
La Liga
20:00BarçavReal MadridModel expects 3.8 total goals	Barça38%	2.61	O1.589%	51%	21%	28%	89%	73%	52%	61%	73%	89%	52%	61%
17:30Real SociedadvLevanteModel expects 3.1 total goals	Real Sociedad34%	2.96	O1.581%	51%	24%	25%	81%	59%	37%	56%	59%	81%	37%	56%
15:15CeltavReal BetisModel expects 2.8 total goals	Celta23%	4.28	O1.577%	38%	26%	35%	77%	53%	30%	55%	53%	77%	30%	55%
13:00AthleticvGetafeModel expects 1.8 total goals	Athletic16%	6.13	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
Premier League
14:00LiverpoolvBrightonModel expects 3.1 total goals	Liverpool34%	2.96	O1.583%	50%	24%	26%	83%	61%	38%	59%	61%	83%	38%	59%
14:00Hull CityvBrentfordModel expects 2.8 total goals	Brentford32%	3.11	O1.576%	22%	25%	53%	76%	52%	30%	56%	52%	76%	30%	56%
14:00Man UnitedvBournemouthModel expects 3.1 total goals	Man United29%	3.41	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
14:00Crystal PalacevNewcastleModel expects 3.0 total goals	Crystal Palace25%	4.01	O1.581%	38%	26%	37%	81%	59%	36%	59%	59%	81%	36%	59%
16:30SunderlandvLeedsModel expects 2.6 total goals	Leeds21%	4.72	U3.574%	34%	28%	37%	74%	47%	26%	56%	47%	74%	26%	56%
Brasileirão Série A
01:00SantosvBahiaModel expects 2.8 total goals	Santos26%	3.81	O1.578%	42%	26%	32%	78%	54%	32%	53%	54%	78%	32%	53%

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How do our Win & Over 2.5 predictions work?

This is a combination: it needs both parts at once, one team wins and the match has three or more goals, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. For example, 3-0, 2-1 and 4-1 count for the home side; 2-0, 1-0 and every draw do not. For each match we show the likelier side.

Our model rates every team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage and gives every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10 a probability. A combination is simply the sum of the scorelines where every part is true, so it always agrees with the other numbers on the match page: it can never be higher than either part on its own.

Fair odds are 100 divided by the percentage: 35% equals 2.86, with no bookmaker margin. Combinations pay more because both parts must happen, which is exactly why they land less often. A 35% combination still fails nearly two times in three. These picks are not graded yet, so there is no public record for them; the single-market pages show our graded record.

New to this? Read: What does Over 2.5 goals mean? · What is 1X2 in football betting?

These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.

Frequently asked questions

What is the most likely Win & Over 2.5 pick this weekend?: Bayern win & Over 2.5 in Freiburg v Bayern at 51% (fair odds 1.95). Both parts must happen, so a 51% combination still fails about 5 times in 10.
How is the Win & Over 2.5 probability calculated?: Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
How accurate are your Win & Over 2.5 predictions?: Combination picks are not graded yet, so there is no record for them; each part (the result, BTTS, Over 2.5) has its own graded record on our accuracy page. Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.

Win & over 2.5 predictions this weekend

How do our Win & Over 2.5 predictions work?

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