UFC predictions
Next up: Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan (UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan). Tom Nolan is the favourite at 64%. The likeliest single outcome is Tom Nolan by KO/TKO (31%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 32%.
Back-tested on 5,325 UFC fights (2016–2025): 61.4% of winners, calibrated to within about a point. Live grading starts with the next card. See results.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Saturday, 31 October 2026
| UK | Fight | Win % | Our pick | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Main event · Lightweight · 5 rounds | 36% · 64% | Tom Nolan 64%likeliest: KO/TKO (48% if they win) | 2.79 · 1.56 | |
| 00:00 | Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith Welterweight | 28% · 72% | Jacobe Smith 72%likeliest: Decision (40% if they win) | 3.63 · 1.38 | |
| 00:00 | Ode' Osbourne vs Cody DurdenFlyweight | 49% · 51% | Cody Durden 51%likeliest: Decision (56% if they win) | 2.05 · 1.95 | |
| 00:00 | Yana Santos vs Luana SantosW Bantamweight | 27% · 73% | Luana Santos 73%likeliest: Decision (54% if they win) | 3.64 · 1.38 | |
| 00:00 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov Welterweight | 44% · 56% | Farman Hasanov 56%likeliest: Decision (65% if they win) | 2.25 · 1.80 | |
| 21:00 | Dakota Hope vs Francis MarshallFeatherweight | 30% · 70% | Francis Marshall 70%likeliest: Decision (62% if they win) | 3.34 · 1.43 | |
| 21:00 | Andre Petroski vs Azamat BekoevMiddleweight | 56% · 44% | Andre Petroski 56%likeliest: Decision (40% if they win) | 1.77 · 2.29 | |
| 21:00 | Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo SezinandoWelterweight | 53% · 47% | Theodor Berggren 53%likeliest: KO/TKO (43% if they win) | 1.89 · 2.13 | |
| 21:00 | Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee Featherweight | 51% · 49% | Julian Erosa 51%likeliest: Decision (44% if they win) | 1.96 · 2.04 | |
| 21:00 | Joe Kropschot vs Nick KleinMiddleweight | 63% · 37% | Joe Kropschot 63%likeliest: KO/TKO (50% if they win) | 1.58 · 2.73 | |
| 21:00 | Piera Rodriguez vs Talita AlencarW Strawweight | 67% · 33% | Piera Rodriguez 67%likeliest: Decision (85% if they win) | 1.50 · 3.02 | |
| 21:00 | Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová W Flyweight | 41% · 59% | Lucia Szabová 59%likeliest: Decision (50% if they win) | 2.45 · 1.69 | |
| 21:00 | Mickey Gall vs Zach ReeseMiddleweight | 29% · 71% | Zach Reese 71%likeliest: Decision (50% if they win) | 3.43 · 1.41 |
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Saturday, 7 November 2026
| UK | Fight | Win % | Our pick | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | Sean Brady vs Gabriel BonfimMain event · Welterweight · 5 rounds | 47% · 53% | Gabriel Bonfim 53%likeliest: KO/TKO (43% if they win) | 2.13 · 1.88 | |
| 01:00 | Tatiana Suarez vs Virna JandirobaW Strawweight | 71% · 29% | Tatiana Suarez 71%likeliest: Decision (63% if they win) | 1.42 · 3.39 | |
| 01:00 | Billy Elekana vs Lucas FernandoLight Heavyweight | 45% · 55% | Lucas Fernando 55%likeliest: KO/TKO (52% if they win) | 2.21 · 1.82 | |
| 01:00 | Wes Schultz vs Mantas Kondratavičius Middleweight | 30% · 70% | Mantas Kondratavičius 70%likeliest: KO/TKO (60% if they win) | 3.34 · 1.43 | |
| 01:00 | Lucas Brennan vs Austin BashiFeatherweight | 29% · 71% | Austin Bashi 71%likeliest: Decision (46% if they win) | 3.40 · 1.42 | |
| 22:00 | Davey Grant vs Elijah SmithBantamweight | 20% · 80% | Elijah Smith 80%likeliest: Decision (52% if they win) | 4.94 · 1.25 | |
| 22:00 | Wellington Turman vs Seokhyeon KoWelterweight | 25% · 75% | Seokhyeon Ko 75%likeliest: Decision (66% if they win) | 3.95 · 1.34 | |
| 22:00 | Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin HinesHeavyweight | 79% · 21% | Gabriel Lorenço 79%likeliest: KO/TKO (71% if they win) | 1.26 · 4.84 | |
| 22:00 | Karine Silva vs Gabriella FernandesW Flyweight | 72% · 28% | Karine Silva 72%likeliest: Decision (50% if they win) | 1.40 · 3.52 | |
| 22:00 | Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov Featherweight | 50% · 50% | Murtazali Magomedov 50%likeliest: Decision (44% if they win) | 2.00 · 2.00 | |
| 22:00 | Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid Featherweight | 34% · 66% | Ollie Schmid 66%likeliest: Decision (53% if they win) | 2.91 · 1.52 | |
| 22:00 | Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević W Bantamweight | 18% · 82% | Nina Milošević 82%likeliest: Decision (44% if they win) | 5.62 · 1.22 | |
| 22:00 | Jonny Parsons vs Jose HenriqueWelterweight | 29% · 71% | Jose Henrique 71%likeliest: Decision (54% if they win) | 3.48 · 1.40 |
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, 14 November 2026
| UK | Fight | Win % | Our pick | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane Main event · Heavyweight · 5 rounds | 51% · 49% | Josh Hokit 51%likeliest: KO/TKO (64% if they win) | 1.95 · 2.06 | |
| 02:00 | Amanda Nunes vs Kayla HarrisonW Bantamweight · 5 rounds | 56% · 44% | Amanda Nunes 56%likeliest: Decision (47% if they win) | 1.79 · 2.27 | |
| 02:00 | Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui Middleweight | 48% · 52% | Yousri Belgaroui 52%likeliest: KO/TKO (58% if they win) | 2.07 · 1.93 | |
| 02:00 | Kevin Holland vs Uroš MedićWelterweight | 52% · 48% | Kevin Holland 52%likeliest: Submission (39% if they win) | 1.93 · 2.08 | |
| 02:00 | Luis Gurule vs Bilal Hasan Flyweight | 18% · 82% | Bilal Hasan 82%likeliest: KO/TKO (48% if they win) | 5.63 · 1.22 | |
| 00:00 | Stephen Thompson vs Charles RadtkeWelterweight | 45% · 55% | Charles Radtke 55%likeliest: Decision (58% if they win) | 2.24 · 1.81 | |
| 00:00 | Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan Lightweight | 38% · 62% | Chris Duncan 62%likeliest: Decision (42% if they win) | 2.65 · 1.61 | |
| 00:00 | Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinneyLightweight | 32% · 68% | Terrance McKinney 68%likeliest: Decision (48% if they win) | 3.17 · 1.46 | |
| 22:00 | Macy Chiasson vs Bia MesquitaW Bantamweight | 44% · 56% | Bia Mesquita 56%likeliest: Decision (44% if they win) | 2.26 · 1.79 | |
| 22:00 | Adrian Yañez vs Juan Diaz Bantamweight | 43% · 57% | Juan Diaz 57%likeliest: Decision (44% if they win) | 2.32 · 1.76 | |
| 22:00 | Cesar Almeida vs Donte JohnsonMiddleweight | 28% · 72% | Donte Johnson 72%likeliest: Decision (46% if they win) | 3.60 · 1.39 | |
| 22:00 | Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson NascimentoLightweight | 54% · 46% | Nazim Sadykhov 54%likeliest: KO/TKO (54% if they win) | 1.84 · 2.19 | |
| 22:00 | Jared Gordon vs Melquizael CostaLightweight | 32% · 68% | Melquizael Costa 68%likeliest: Decision (38% if they win) | 3.08 · 1.48 |
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
Saturday, 21 November 2026
| UK | Fight | Win % | Our pick | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Jiří Procházka vs Navajo StirlingMain event · Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds | 25% · 75% | Navajo Stirling 75%likeliest: KO/TKO (76% if they win) | 3.97 · 1.34 | |
| 18:00 | Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos Featherweight | 56% · 44% | Aljamain Sterling 56%likeliest: Decision (65% if they win) | 1.80 · 2.25 | |
| 18:00 | Brian Ortega vs Dan HookerLightweight | 40% · 60% | Dan Hooker 60%likeliest: KO/TKO (47% if they win) | 2.51 · 1.66 | |
| 18:00 | Jared Cannonier vs Ikram AliskerovMiddleweight | 23% · 77% | Ikram Aliskerov 77%likeliest: Decision (57% if they win) | 4.29 · 1.30 | |
| 18:00 | Shamil Gaziev vs Tallison TeixeiraHeavyweight | 27% · 73% | Tallison Teixeira 73%likeliest: KO/TKO (70% if they win) | 3.71 · 1.37 | |
| 15:00 | Jake Matthews vs Tahir AbdullayevWelterweight | 62% · 38% | Jake Matthews 62%likeliest: Decision (47% if they win) | 1.61 · 2.63 | |
| 15:00 | Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna Bantamweight | 29% · 71% | Santiago Luna 71%likeliest: Decision (57% if they win) | 3.41 · 1.42 | |
| 15:00 | Kyoji Horiguchi vs Asu Almabayev Flyweight | 42% · 58% | Asu Almabayev 58%likeliest: Decision (43% if they win) | 2.40 · 1.72 | |
| 15:00 | Amir Albazi vs Alessandro CostaFlyweight | 43% · 57% | Alessandro Costa 57%likeliest: Decision (53% if they win) | 2.32 · 1.76 |
How the UFC model works
Every UFC fighter gets a rating from their fight history since 1993, updated after every bout and moving more for a finish than a close decision. The win chance combines the rating gap with reach, age, time since the last fight, UFC experience and recent striking and grappling numbers (strikes landed and absorbed per minute, takedowns and knockdowns). The method split starts from each weight class's usual mix of KOs, submissions and decisions and adjusts for how each fighter tends to win and lose.
Every percentage is a probability, not a promise: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. 18+.
Frequently asked questions
- How are the UFC predictions made?
- A statistical model rates every UFC fighter from their results since 1993 (an Elo-style rating that moves more for finishes), then adjusts for reach, age, time out and recent striking and grappling numbers. A second part estimates how each fighter wins: KO/TKO, submission or decision.
- How accurate are the predictions?
- Tested on 5,325 UFC fights from 2016 to 2025, each predicted only from earlier fights, the model picked 61.4% of winners and its percentages matched reality to within about one point: fighters given 70% won about 70% of the time. Every published prediction is graded on this site after the fight.
- What do the fair odds mean?
- Fair odds are 100 divided by our win percentage, with no bookmaker margin. A fighter at 60% has fair odds of 1.67. A bookmaker price above our fair odds means the bookmaker rates the fighter lower than our model does.
- When do predictions change?
- Predictions update as cards change, for example after a late replacement. They are frozen when the fight starts, and only the frozen prediction is graded.
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.