Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Light Heavyweight

USA · 10-2-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC45%

PickFernandoKO/TKO

Brazil · 14-3-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC55%

Lucas Fernando is the slight favourite at 55%. The likeliest single outcome is Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO (28%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 34%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Elekana's rating, built from every UFC result, is 44 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Fernando has a 8 cm reach advantage (197 cm vs 204 cm).

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Billy Elekana: 45% to win

KO/TKO15% overall
Submission12% overall
Decision18% overall

Lucas Fernando: 55% to win

KO/TKO28% overall
Submission10% overall
Decision16% overall

Goes the distance: 34% · Fair odds: Billy Elekana 2.21, Lucas Fernando 1.82. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Billy Elekana	Tale of the tape	Lucas Fernando
10-2-0	Record	14-3-0
USA	Nationality	Brazil
4	UFC fights	2
31	Age	29
191 cm	Height	191 cm
197 cm	Reach	204 cm
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
0 / 2 / 1	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 0
0 / 1 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 1
3.0	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.7
3.6	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	3.3
1.0	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.6
0.39	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.84

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Billy Elekana: last UFC fights

2026-02-01vs Junior Tafa R2 3:18W SUB
2025-11-01vs Kevin Christian R1 3:33W SUB
2025-07-26vs Ibo Aslan R3 5:00W DEC
2025-01-19vs Bogdan Guskov R2 3:33L SUB

Won 3 (75%)Lost 1 (25%)

Lucas Fernando: last UFC fights

2026-08-15vs Rafael Tobias R3 1:10W KO/TKO
2023-08-08vs Cesar Almeida R3 5:00L DEC

Won 1 (50%)Lost 1 (50%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando?: Our model makes Lucas Fernando the slight favourite at 55%, with Billy Elekana at 45%.
How will Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando end?: The chance it goes the distance is 34%. If Lucas Fernando wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (52% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Billy Elekana 2.21, Lucas Fernando 1.82: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.