Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique prediction

What the numbers show

• Parsons has not fought in the UFC since July 2023.
• Henrique has a 25 cm reach advantage (175 cm vs 201 cm).
• Henrique is the younger fighter: 24 against 35 on fight night.
• Parsons's rating, built from every UFC result, is 59 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 50% · Fair odds: Jonny Parsons 3.48, Jose Henrique 1.40. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Jonny Parsons	Tale of the tape	Jose Henrique
9-3-0	Record	9-1-0
–	Nationality	Brazil
2	UFC fights	2
35	Age	24
175 cm	Height	191 cm
175 cm	Reach	201 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
1 / 0 / 1	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 1
0 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 0
4.3	Sig. strikes landed per minute	4.0
4.4	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	4.4
0.6	Takedowns per 15 minutes	0.6
0.87	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.12

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique?

Our model makes Jose Henrique the favourite at 71%, with Jonny Parsons at 29%.

How will Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique end?

The chance it goes the distance is 50%. If Jose Henrique wins, the likeliest route is decision (54% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Jonny Parsons 3.48, Jose Henrique 1.40: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.