Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes prediction

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · W Flyweight

Brazil · 19-7-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 4 SUB, 2 DEC72%

PickSilvaDEC

Brazil · 11-4-0UFC wins: 0 KO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC28%

Karine Silva is the favourite at 72%. The likeliest single outcome is Karine Silva by decision (36%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 57%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Silva's rating, built from every UFC result, is 87 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
Silva is harder to hit, absorbing 2.9 significant strikes a minute to 5.0.
Silva wrestles more, averaging 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.6.
Fernandes lands more: 3.5 significant strikes a minute to 2.4.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Karine Silva: 72% to win

KO/TKO11% overall
Submission25% overall
Decision36% overall

Gabriella Fernandes: 28% to win

KO/TKO3% overall
Submission4% overall
Decision21% overall

Goes the distance: 57% · Fair odds: Karine Silva 1.40, Gabriella Fernandes 3.52. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Karine Silva	Tale of the tape	Gabriella Fernandes
19-7-0	Record	11-4-0
Brazil	Nationality	Brazil
9	UFC fights	6
32	Age	33
165 cm	Height	168 cm
170 cm	Reach	168 cm
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
0 / 4 / 2	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 1 / 2
0 / 0 / 3	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 2
2.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.5
2.9	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	5.0
1.9	Takedowns per 15 minutes	0.6
0.18	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.23

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Karine Silva: last UFC fights

2026-04-19vs Jasmine Jasudavicius R3 5:00L DEC
2025-12-07vs Maycee Barber R3 5:00L DEC
2025-08-16vs Dione Barbosa R3 5:00W DEC
2024-11-17vs Viviane Araújo R3 5:00L DEC
2024-04-27vs Ariane Lipski da Silva R3 5:00W DEC

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

Gabriella Fernandes: last UFC fights

2026-03-28vs Casey O'Neill R1 3:11L KO/TKO
2025-08-09vs Julija Stoliarenko R3 5:00W DEC
2024-11-23vs Wang Cong R2 3:49W SUB
2024-06-15vs Carli Judice R3 5:00W DEC
2023-06-17vs Tereza Bleda R3 5:00L DEC

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes?: Our model makes Karine Silva the favourite at 72%, with Gabriella Fernandes at 28%.
How will Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes end?: The chance it goes the distance is 57%. If Karine Silva wins, the likeliest route is decision (50% of their wins).
What are the fair odds?: Karine Silva 1.40, Gabriella Fernandes 3.52: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.

More from UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.