Lucas Brennan vs Austin Bashi prediction
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Featherweight
Austin Bashi is the favourite at 71%. The likeliest single outcome is Austin Bashi by decision (32%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Bashi wrestles more, averaging 4.9 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.7.
- Bashi's rating, built from every UFC result, is 45 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Lucas Brennan: 29% to win
- KO/TKO8% overall
- Submission4% overall
- Decision18% overall
Austin Bashi: 71% to win
- KO/TKO8% overall
- Submission30% overall
- Decision32% overall
Goes the distance: 50% · Fair odds: Lucas Brennan 3.40, Austin Bashi 1.42. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Lucas Brennan | Tale of the tape | Austin Bashi |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3-0 | Record | 14-2-0 |
| USA | Nationality | USA |
| 1 | UFC fights | 4 |
| 26 | Age | 25 |
| 178 cm | Height | 168 cm |
| 180 cm | Reach | 178 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 0 / 0 / 0 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 2 / 0 |
| 0 / 0 / 1 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| 2.1 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 2.3 |
| 2.9 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 2.7 |
| 0.7 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 4.9 |
| 0.16 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.08 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Austin Bashi: last UFC fights
- 2026-07-18vs Jose Miguel Delgado
R3 5:00L DEC - 2025-08-02vs John Yannis R1 3:39W SUB
- 2025-01-12vs Christian Rodriguez R3 5:00L DEC
- 2024-09-04vs Dorian Ramos R2 3:15W SUB
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Lucas Brennan vs Austin Bashi?
- Our model makes Austin Bashi the favourite at 71%, with Lucas Brennan at 29%.
- How will Lucas Brennan vs Austin Bashi end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 50%. If Austin Bashi wins, the likeliest route is decision (46% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Lucas Brennan 3.40, Austin Bashi 1.42: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
- Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim
- Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba
- Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
- Wellington Turman vs Seokhyeon Ko
- Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
- Wes Schultz vs Mantas Kondratavičius
- Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin Hines
- Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
- Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov
- Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
- Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević
- Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.