Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid prediction

What the numbers show

• Schmid is the younger fighter: 25 against 37 on fight night.
• Nakamura's rating, built from every UFC result, is 55 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.

The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.

Who wins, and how?

Goes the distance: 49% · Fair odds: Keiichiro Nakamura 2.91, Ollie Schmid 1.52. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Keiichiro Nakamura	Tale of the tape	Ollie Schmid
8-1-0	Record	4-3-0
Japan	Nationality	New Zealand
1	UFC fights	1
37	Age	25
178 cm	Height	180 cm
178 cm	Reach	–
Southpaw	Stance	--
1 / 0 / 0	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	0 / 0 / 0
0 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 0
3.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.5
4.6	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	4.3
0.8	Takedowns per 15 minutes	1.3
0.68	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.26

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid?

Our model makes Ollie Schmid the favourite at 66%, with Keiichiro Nakamura at 34%.

How will Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid end?

The chance it goes the distance is 49%. If Ollie Schmid wins, the likeliest route is decision (53% of their wins).

What are the fair odds?

Keiichiro Nakamura 2.91, Ollie Schmid 1.52: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.