Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim prediction
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Welterweight · 5 rounds · main event
Gabriel Bonfim is the slight favourite at 53%. The likeliest single outcome is Gabriel Bonfim by KO/TKO (23%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 33%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Bonfim is the younger fighter: 29 against 33 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Sean Brady: 47% to win
- KO/TKO15% overall
- Submission14% overall
- Decision18% overall
Gabriel Bonfim: 53% to win
- KO/TKO23% overall
- Submission15% overall
- Decision15% overall
Goes the distance: 33% · Fair odds: Sean Brady 2.13, Gabriel Bonfim 1.88. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Sean Brady | Tale of the tape |  Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| 19-2-0 | Record | 20-1-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Brazil |
| 11 | UFC fights | 9 |
| 33 | Age | 29 |
| 178 cm | Height | 185 cm |
| 183 cm | Reach | 184 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 0 / 4 / 5 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 4 / 3 |
| 2 / 0 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 4.0 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.6 |
| 2.8 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.6 |
| 3.4 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 2.4 |
| 0.12 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.19 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Sean Brady: last UFC fights
- 2026-05-10vs Joaquin Buckley R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-11-16vs Michael Morales
R1 3:27L KO/TKO - 2025-03-22vs Leon Edwards
R4 1:39W SUB - 2024-09-07vs Gilbert Burns R5 5:00W DEC
- 2023-12-03vs Kelvin Gastelum R3 1:43W SUB
Gabriel Bonfim: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-07vs Belal Muhammad
R5 5:00W DEC - 2025-11-09vs Randy Brown
R2 1:40W KO/TKO - 2025-07-13vs Stephen Thompson R3 5:00W DEC
- 2025-02-15vs Khaos Williams R2 4:58W SUB
- 2024-07-14vs Ange Loosa
R3 5:00W DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim?
- Our model makes Gabriel Bonfim the slight favourite at 53%, with Sean Brady at 47%.
- How will Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 33%. If Gabriel Bonfim wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (43% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Sean Brady 2.13, Gabriel Bonfim 1.88: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.