How are the basketball predictions made?

Each team gets an attack and a defence rating in points, learned from every NBA and EuroLeague game since 2015 and updated after each one. A game's projected score is the league average adjusted for both ratings, home court and, in the NBA, the second night of a back-to-back. The win chance, handicap and over/under chances all come from that projected score and how far real results usually land from it.

How accurate are the predictions?

Tested on six seasons it never saw while being tuned (2020-21 onwards), each game predicted only from earlier games, the model picked 65.2% of NBA winners (always backing the home team: 55.3%) and 64.4% in the EuroLeague (home team: 62.1%). Its handicap and over/under chances matched what happened to within about one to two points. Every published prediction is graded on this site after the game.

What do the handicap and total lines mean?

The handicap is the favourite giving points: 'LAL -4.5' needs the Lakers to win by 5 or more. The total is combined points including overtime: 'O 221.5' needs 222 or more. We show our own lines, the nearest half point to our projection, with the chance each one lands. Compare them with a bookmaker's line before reading anything into them.

When do predictions change?

Predictions update until tip-off as results come in elsewhere. They are frozen at tip-off, and only the frozen prediction is graded.

Basketball predictions

Next up: Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers. Indiana Pacers are slight favourites at 50% (Milwaukee Bucks 50%). Projected score MIL 116-116 IND: IND by about 1, 233 points in total. IND -0.5: 49%. Over 233.5: 48%.

Live grading starts with the first games after launch. Back-tested on six unseen seasons: 65.2% of NBA winners, 64.4% in the EuroLeague. How it works.

Today

Today's NBA and EuroLeague games with win chances, handicap, total and projected score
UK	Game	Win %	Our pick	Handicap	Total	Score
00:00NBA	Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers	50% 50%	Indiana Pacers 50%fair odds 1.99	IND -0.549% to cover	O 233.548% over	proj. 116-116
00:00NBA	Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns	77% 23%	Oklahoma City Thunder 77%fair odds 1.30	OKC -9.550% to cover	O 218.549% over	proj. 114-104
00:30NBA	Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks	58% 42%	Houston Rockets 58%fair odds 1.73	HOU -3.547% to cover	O 225.548% over	proj. 114-111
01:00NBA	Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies	52% 48%	Utah Jazz 52%fair odds 1.91	UTAH -1.548% to cover	O 238.549% over	proj. 120-119
02:00NBA	Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors	73% 27%	Denver Nuggets 73%fair odds 1.38	DEN -8.548% to cover	O 230.548% over	proj. 119-111
16:00EuroLeague	Dubai Basketball vs Paris Basketball	72% 28%	Dubai Basketball 72%fair odds 1.39	DUB -7.547% to cover	O 180.550% over	proj. 94-87
19:00EuroLeague	Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade vs Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv	74% 26%	Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 74%fair odds 1.36	RED -7.549% to cover	O 176.549% over	proj. 92-84
19:00EuroLeague	FC Bayern Munich vs FC Barcelona	49% 51%	FC Barcelona 51%fair odds 1.95	BAR -0.549% to cover	O 172.549% over	proj. 86-86
19:15EuroLeague	Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Armani Olimpia Milan	84% 16%	Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens 84%fair odds 1.20	PAN -11.549% to cover	O 172.548% over	proj. 91-80
19:30EuroLeague	Valencia Basket vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul	64% 36%	Valencia Basket 64%fair odds 1.57	PAM -4.548% to cover	O 169.549% over	proj. 87-82
20:00EuroLeague	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid	32% 68%	Real Madrid 68%fair odds 1.46	MAD -6.547% to cover	O 182.550% over	proj. 88-94
23:30NBA	Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets	86% 14%	Boston Celtics 86%fair odds 1.16	BOS -14.549% to cover	O 215.549% over	proj. 114-100
00:00NBA	New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons	61% 39%	New York Knicks 61%fair odds 1.65	NY -3.550% to cover	O 214.550% over	proj. 109-105
00:00NBA	San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings	90% 10%	San Antonio Spurs 90%fair odds 1.11	SA -17.548% to cover	O 228.548% over	proj. 122-105

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's NBA and EuroLeague games with win chances, handicap, total and projected score
UK	Game	Win %	Our pick	Handicap	Total	Score
03:00NBA	Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers	55% 45%	Los Angeles Lakers 55%fair odds 1.82	LAL -2.547% to cover	O 223.548% over	proj. 112-111
17:30EuroLeague	Besiktas Istanbul vs Olympiacos Piraeus	37% 63%	Olympiacos Piraeus 63%fair odds 1.58	OLY -4.548% to cover	O 175.548% over	proj. 85-89
18:00EuroLeague	Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul	71% 29%	Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv 71%fair odds 1.41	HTA -6.549% to cover	O 169.550% over	proj. 88-82
19:00EuroLeague	LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade	47% 53%	Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade 53%fair odds 1.89	PAR -1.548% to cover	O 166.549% over	proj. 83-84
19:30EuroLeague	Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas	50% 50%	Zalgiris Kaunas 50%fair odds 2.00	ZAL -0.548% to cover	O 171.549% over	proj. 86-86
23:00NBA	Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat	66% 34%	Atlanta Hawks 66%fair odds 1.53	ATL -5.549% to cover	O 239.549% over	proj. 122-117
23:00NBA	Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards	81% 19%	Cleveland Cavaliers 81%fair odds 1.23	CLE -11.550% to cover	O 234.550% over	proj. 123-111
23:00NBA	Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets	62% 38%	Detroit Pistons 62%fair odds 1.62	DET -4.548% to cover	O 215.549% over	proj. 109-106
23:00NBA	Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers	42% 58%	Philadelphia 76ers 58%fair odds 1.72	PHI -3.547% to cover	O 231.549% over	proj. 114-117
23:30NBA	Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic	61% 39%	Toronto Raptors 61%fair odds 1.63	TOR -4.548% to cover	O 219.550% over	proj. 112-108

How the basketball model works

Every NBA and EuroLeague team has two ratings in points: how many more points it scores than an average team, and how many more it allows. They are learned from every game since 2015 and move a little after each result, more early in a season and less once the picture is clear. A projected score starts from the league's average points, then adds home court, both teams' ratings and, in the NBA, about 1.5 points lost on the second night of a back-to-back. Preseason games count for rest but never for ratings.

The win chance, the handicap and the over/under chances all come from the projected margin and total and from how far real results land from them (about 13 points for an NBA margin, 18 for an NBA total). Overtime is added to the total because betting totals include it. Win chances are shown between 10% and 90%: the back-test found the most lopsided games slightly less certain than the raw numbers. Every percentage is a probability, not a promise.

Frequently asked questions

How are the basketball predictions made?: Each team gets an attack and a defence rating in points, learned from every NBA and EuroLeague game since 2015 and updated after each one. A game's projected score is the league average adjusted for both ratings, home court and, in the NBA, the second night of a back-to-back. The win chance, handicap and over/under chances all come from that projected score and how far real results usually land from it.
How accurate are the predictions?: Tested on six seasons it never saw while being tuned (2020-21 onwards), each game predicted only from earlier games, the model picked 65.2% of NBA winners (always backing the home team: 55.3%) and 64.4% in the EuroLeague (home team: 62.1%). Its handicap and over/under chances matched what happened to within about one to two points. Every published prediction is graded on this site after the game.
What do the handicap and total lines mean?: The handicap is the favourite giving points: 'LAL -4.5' needs the Lakers to win by 5 or more. The total is combined points including overtime: 'O 221.5' needs 222 or more. We show our own lines, the nearest half point to our projection, with the chance each one lands. Compare them with a bookmaker's line before reading anything into them.
When do predictions change?: Predictions update until tip-off as results come in elsewhere. They are frozen at tip-off, and only the frozen prediction is graded.

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.