Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid prediction

EuroLeague · Tuesday, 27 October 2026, 20:00 UK

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz1-6 · 2032%

PickMAD88-94

Real Madrid are favourites at 68% (Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 32%). Projected score BAS 88-94 MAD: MAD by about 6, 182 points in total. MAD -6.5: 47%. Over 182.5: 50%.

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:32 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.

What the numbers show

Madrid rate 8.9 points per game better on our numbers (net +5.1 against −3.8), the biggest input in the prediction.
Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 14.3 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
Vitoria-Gasteiz are 1-3 at home this season.

The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.

Winner

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 32% (fair odds 3.15)

Real Madrid 68% (fair odds 1.46)

Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 4%.

Handicap (MAD)

MAD -1.564%
MAD -6.547%
MAD -11.530%

Chance MAD wins by more than the line. Projected margin 6.

Total points

Over 172.573%
Over 177.562%
Over 182.550%
Over 187.537%
Over 192.526%

Projected 182, overtime included.

Head to head

Last 6 meetings of Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and Real Madrid, points by quarter
Date	Teams	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
03 Apr2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid	2927	1926	2523	2520	98 96
11 Dec2025	Real Madrid vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2423	1816	2921	2327	94 87
23 Jan2025	Real Madrid vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2221	2024	2222	2622	90 89
15 Oct2024	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid	1618	2017	1217	2820	76 72
01 May2024	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid	2222	3430	1720	2530	98 102
25 Apr2024	Real Madrid vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2321	2319	2823	2727	101 90

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz won 2 (33%)Real Madrid won 4 (67%)

EuroLeague table

EuroLeague standings with Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and Real Madrid highlighted
#	Team	GP	W	L	PF	PA	Win %
1	Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens	7	6	1	613	517	.857
2	Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul	7	6	1	565	508	.857
3	Valencia Basket	7	5	2	694	642	.714
4	Olympiacos Piraeus	7	5	2	650	603	.714
5	Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv	7	5	2	630	601	.714
6	Dubai Basketball	7	5	2	597	584	.714
7	Real Madrid	7	4	3	667	630	.571
8	Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade	7	4	3	567	542	.571
9	FC Barcelona	7	4	3	631	619	.571
10	Virtus Bologna	7	4	3	606	608	.571
11	Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade	7	4	3	551	553	.571
12	Zalgiris Kaunas	7	3	4	595	602	.429
13	Anadolu Efes Istanbul	7	3	4	581	590	.429
14	Besiktas Istanbul	7	3	4	634	644	.429
15	Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv	7	2	5	608	653	.286
16	FC Bayern Munich	7	2	5	612	659	.286
17	LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne	7	2	5	612	677	.286
18	Paris Basketball	7	1	6	597	649	.143
19	Armani Olimpia Milan	7	1	6	585	648	.143
20	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	7	1	6	583	649	.143

Full EuroLeague standings

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz: last 6 games this season

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz's last 6 games, points by quarter
Date	Teams	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
22 Oct2026	Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2021	2319	2014	2225	85 79
16 Oct2026	Virtus Bologna vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2412	2222	2219	1825	86 78
13 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Dubai Basketball	2325	2019	1926	1723	79 93
09 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Besiktas Istanbul	2028	3121	2024	1319	84 92
02 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Armani Olimpia Milan	2616	1820	2124	2116	86 76
29 Sept2026	Valencia Basket vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz	2610	2623	3127	2828	111 88

Won 1 (17%)Lost 5 (83%)

Real Madrid: last 6 games this season

Real Madrid's last 6 games, points by quarter
Date	Teams	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
22 Oct2026	Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid	3023	2228	2130	2632	99 113
15 Oct2026	Real Madrid vs LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne	2725	3423	1623	3421	111 92
13 Oct2026	Armani Olimpia Milan vs Real Madrid	2521	1532	2731	2214	89 98
08 Oct2026	Real Madrid vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade	2719	2618	1820	1519	86 76
01 Oct2026	Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid	2920	3423	1232	2723	102 98
29 Sept2026	Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Real Madrid	2729	2612	1924	2219	94 84

Won 4 (67%)Lost 2 (33%)

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz at home

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz's games at home this season
Date	Teams	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
13 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Dubai Basketball	2325	2019	1926	1723	79 93
09 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Besiktas Istanbul	2028	3121	2024	1319	84 92
02 Oct2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Armani Olimpia Milan	2616	1820	2124	2116	86 76
24 Sept2026	Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Olympiacos Piraeus	2936	1720	1425	2925	89 106

Won 1 (25%)Lost 3 (75%)

Real Madrid on the road

Real Madrid's games on the road this season
Date	Teams	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
22 Oct2026	Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid	3023	2228	2130	2632	99 113
13 Oct2026	Armani Olimpia Milan vs Real Madrid	2521	1532	2731	2214	89 98
01 Oct2026	Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid	2920	3423	1232	2723	102 98
29 Sept2026	Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Real Madrid	2729	2612	1924	2219	94 84
24 Sept2026	Dubai Basketball vs Real Madrid	2016	1828	2518	1515	78 77

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

Next games

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Real Madrid

29 Octvs Fenerbahce Tarfin IstanbulMAD 67%
04 Novvs Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
12 Novvs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz vs Real Madrid?: Our model makes Real Madrid favourites at 68%, with a projected score of BAS 88-94 MAD.
What is the handicap prediction?: MAD -6.5 covers 47% of the time on our numbers; MAD is projected to win by about 6.
Over or under?: We project 182 total points including overtime. Over 182.5: 50%; under: 50%.

More EuroLeague games

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.