Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul prediction
EuroLeague · Thursday, 29 October 2026, 19:45 UK
Real Madrid are favourites at 67% (Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul 33%). Projected score MAD 87-82 ULK: MAD by about 5, 168 points in total. MAD -5.5: 48%. Over 168.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:32 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
These two rate about the same on our numbers; home court, worth about 3 to 4 points, is what makes Real Madrid the pick.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Real Madrid 67% (fair odds 1.49)
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul 33% (fair odds 3.02)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 5%.
Handicap (MAD)
- MAD -0.565%
- MAD -5.548%
- MAD -10.532%
Chance MAD wins by more than the line. Projected margin 5.
Total points
- Over 158.573%
- Over 163.562%
- Over 168.550%
- Over 173.538%
- Over 178.526%
Projected 168, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Real Madrid | 2119 | 1321 | 2414 | 1120 | 69 74 | |
| 30 Oct2025 | Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 2516 | 246 | 1513 | 2023 | 84 58 | |
| 06 Feb2025 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Real Madrid | 1616 | 2412 | 1819 | 2020 | 78 67 | |
| 05 Dec2024 | Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 2012 | 1125 | 1623 | 2322 | 70 82 | |
| 07 Mar2024 | Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 1520 | 1823 | 2524 | 2122 | 79 89 | |
| 30 Nov2023 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Real Madrid | 1629 | 2115 | 2223 | 2820 | 1312 | 100 99 |
EuroLeague table
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 7 | 6 | 1 | 613 | 517 | .857 |
| 2 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 7 | 6 | 1 | 565 | 508 | .857 |
| 3 | Valencia Basket | 7 | 5 | 2 | 694 | 642 | .714 |
| 4 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 2 | 650 | 603 | .714 |
| 5 | Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 7 | 5 | 2 | 630 | 601 | .714 |
| 6 | Dubai Basketball | 7 | 5 | 2 | 597 | 584 | .714 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 7 | 4 | 3 | 667 | 630 | .571 |
| 8 | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 7 | 4 | 3 | 567 | 542 | .571 |
| 9 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 4 | 3 | 631 | 619 | .571 |
| 10 | Virtus Bologna | 7 | 4 | 3 | 606 | 608 | .571 |
| 11 | Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 7 | 4 | 3 | 551 | 553 | .571 |
| 12 | Zalgiris Kaunas | 7 | 3 | 4 | 595 | 602 | .429 |
| 13 | Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 7 | 3 | 4 | 581 | 590 | .429 |
| 14 | Besiktas Istanbul | 7 | 3 | 4 | 634 | 644 | .429 |
| 15 | Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv | 7 | 2 | 5 | 608 | 653 | .286 |
| 16 | FC Bayern Munich | 7 | 2 | 5 | 612 | 659 | .286 |
| 17 | LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 7 | 2 | 5 | 612 | 677 | .286 |
| 18 | Paris Basketball | 7 | 1 | 6 | 597 | 649 | .143 |
| 19 | Armani Olimpia Milan | 7 | 1 | 6 | 585 | 648 | .143 |
| 20 | Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 7 | 1 | 6 | 583 | 649 | .143 |
Real Madrid: last 6 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid | 3023 | 2228 | 2130 | 2632 | 99 113 |
| 15 Oct2026 | Real Madrid vs LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 2725 | 3423 | 1623 | 3421 | 111 92 |
| 13 Oct2026 | Armani Olimpia Milan vs Real Madrid | 2521 | 1532 | 2731 | 2214 | 89 98 |
| 08 Oct2026 | Real Madrid vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 2719 | 2618 | 1820 | 1519 | 86 76 |
| 01 Oct2026 | Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid | 2920 | 3423 | 1232 | 2723 | 102 98 |
| 29 Sept2026 | Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Real Madrid | 2729 | 2612 | 1924 | 2219 | 94 84 |
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul: last 6 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct2026 | Olympiacos Piraeus vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 208 | 1416 | 1521 | 1219 | 61 64 |
| 15 Oct2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 1219 | 139 | 3416 | 1521 | 74 65 |
| 13 Oct2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Zalgiris Kaunas | 2714 | 2329 | 2813 | 2124 | 99 80 |
| 08 Oct2026 | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 2724 | 1917 | 2114 | 2519 | 92 74 |
| 02 Oct2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Dubai Basketball | 2614 | 1625 | 1312 | 2115 | 76 66 |
| 29 Sept2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs FC Bayern Munich | 3115 | 1916 | 2520 | 2525 | 100 76 |
Real Madrid at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct2026 | Real Madrid vs LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 2725 | 3423 | 1623 | 3421 | 111 92 |
| 08 Oct2026 | Real Madrid vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 2719 | 2618 | 1820 | 1519 | 86 76 |
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct2026 | Olympiacos Piraeus vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 208 | 1416 | 1521 | 1219 | 61 64 |
| 08 Oct2026 | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 2724 | 1917 | 2114 | 2519 | 92 74 |
Next games
Real Madrid
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Real Madrid vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul?
- Our model makes Real Madrid favourites at 67%, with a projected score of MAD 87-82 ULK.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- MAD -5.5 covers 48% of the time on our numbers; MAD is projected to win by about 5.
- Over or under?
- We project 168 total points including overtime. Over 168.5: 50%; under: 50%.
More EuroLeague games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.