Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat prediction
NBA · Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 23:00 UK
Atlanta Hawks are favourites at 66% (Miami Heat 34%). Projected score ATL 122-117 MIA: ATL by about 5, 239 points in total. ATL -5.5: 49%. Over 239.5: 49%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 27 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 15.6 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
- Hawks rate 3.6 points per game better on our numbers (net +3.0 against −0.6), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
Atlanta Hawks 66% (fair odds 1.53)
Miami Heat 34% (fair odds 2.90)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (ATL)
- ATL -0.564%
- ATL -5.549%
- ATL -10.534%
Chance ATL wins by more than the line. Projected margin 5.
Total points
- Over 229.570%
- Over 234.560%
- Over 239.549%
- Over 244.538%
- Over 249.528%
Projected 239, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr2026 | Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks | 3324 | 3737 | 2923 | 4433 | 143 117 | |
| 21 Feb2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat | 1629 | 3528 | 2430 | 2241 | 97 128 | |
| 04 Feb2026 | Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks | 2333 | 2734 | 3131 | 3429 | 115 127 | |
| 27 Dec2025 | Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat | 3232 | 1931 | 3327 | 2736 | 111 126 | |
| 19 Apr2025 | Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat | 2433 | 2929 | 2424 | 2920 | 817 | 114 123 |
| 27 Mar2025 | Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks | 2232 | 3823 | 3325 | 2932 | 122 112 |
Atlanta Hawks won 1 (17%)Miami Heat won 5 (83%)
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 3 | 3 | 0 | 355 | 317 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 4 | 3 | 1 | 440 | 428 | .750 |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | 4 | 3 | 1 | 416 | 444 | .750 |
| 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 3 | 2 | 1 | 374 | 327 | .667 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 311 | .667 |
| 6 | Indiana Pacers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 364 | 350 | .667 |
| 7 | Washington Wizards | 4 | 2 | 2 | 457 | 458 | .500 |
| 8 | Boston Celtics | 2 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 224 | .500 |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 235 | .500 |
| 10 | Orlando Magic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 329 | 349 | .333 |
| 11 | Chicago Bulls | 3 | 1 | 2 | 344 | 384 | .333 |
| 12 | New York Knicks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 305 | 324 | .000 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 3 | 0 | 3 | 357 | 387 | .000 |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 333 | 371 | .000 |
| 15 | Miami Heat | 3 | 0 | 3 | 327 | 374 | .000 |
Atlanta Hawks: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks | 2033 | 2335 | 1929 | 1931 | 81 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks | 3328 | 2944 | 3827 | 2533 | 125 132 |
Won 2 (67%)Lost 1 (33%)
Miami Heat: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat | 3131 | 3527 | 3017 | 1935 | 115 110 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons | 2641 | 2724 | 2738 | 3125 | 111 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 3234 | 2735 | 2230 | 2532 | 106 131 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 3 (100%)
Atlanta Hawks at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Miami Heat on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat | 3131 | 3527 | 3017 | 1935 | 115 110 |
Won 0 (0%)Lost 1 (100%)
Next games
Atlanta Hawks
- 30 Octvs Cleveland CavaliersATL 58%
- 31 Octat New Orleans PelicansATL 61%
- 03 Novat Indiana PacersATL 69%
Miami Heat
- 31 Octvs Indiana PacersMIA 64%
- 03 Novat Los Angeles LakersLAL 60%
- 05 Novat LA Clippers
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat?
- Our model makes Atlanta Hawks favourites at 66%, with a projected score of ATL 122-117 MIA.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- ATL -5.5 covers 49% of the time on our numbers; ATL is projected to win by about 5.
- Over or under?
- We project 239 total points including overtime. Over 239.5: 49%; under: 51%.
More NBA games
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- Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets
- Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
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- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
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Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.