New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks prediction
NBA · Saturday, 31 October 2026, 23:00 UK
Atlanta Hawks are slight favourites at 61% (New Orleans Pelicans 39%). Projected score NO 116-120 ATL: ATL by about 4, 236 points in total. ATL -4.5: 47%. Over 236.5: 50%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 22:31 UK; frozen at tip-off. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Points should come easily: between them these teams score and concede 12.8 points more than an average pairing, which lifts the projected total.
- Hawks rate 5.1 points per game better on our numbers (net +3.0 against −2.1), the biggest input in the prediction.
The inputs where these teams differ most. The model weighs all of them together.
Winner
New Orleans Pelicans 39% (fair odds 2.54)
Atlanta Hawks 61% (fair odds 1.65)
Overtime included. Chance of overtime: 6%.
Handicap (ATL)
- ATL -4.547%
- ATL -9.532%
Chance ATL wins by more than the line. Projected margin 4.
Total points
- Over 226.571%
- Over 231.561%
- Over 236.550%
- Over 241.539%
- Over 246.529%
Projected 236, overtime included.
Head to head
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3726 | 2827 | 2413 | 2834 | 117 100 |
| 23 Nov2025 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks | 2521 | 2135 | 2432 | 2827 | 98 115 |
| 03 Dec2024 | Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2628 | 3231 | 3426 | 3227 | 124 112 |
| 04 Nov2024 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks | 3033 | 2925 | 2635 | 2633 | 111 126 |
| 10 Mar2024 | Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2026 | 2227 | 2327 | 3836 | 103 116 |
| 04 Nov2023 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks | 3527 | 2526 | 2341 | 2229 | 105 123 |
Western Conference
Atlanta Hawks play in the other conference: 2-1, 3 in the Eastern.
| # | Team | GP | W | L | PF | PA | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 293 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 203 | 1.000 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 384 | 345 | 1.000 |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3 | 3 | 0 | 357 | 323 | 1.000 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 | 3 | 0 | 320 | 289 | 1.000 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 363 | 334 | 1.000 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 231 | .500 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 2 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 246 | .500 |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 339 | 329 | .333 |
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 336 | 336 | .333 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 3 | 1 | 2 | 337 | 355 | .333 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 374 | .333 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 374 | 384 | .000 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 3 | 0 | 3 | 335 | 369 | .000 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 3 | 0 | 3 | 328 | 372 | .000 |
New Orleans Pelicans: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2438 | 3335 | 3235 | 3718 | 159 | 141 135 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans | 3128 | 3124 | 2438 | 3429 | 120 119 | |
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Atlanta Hawks: last 3 games this season
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct2026 | Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets | 2630 | 2229 | 3333 | 3329 | 114 121 |
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks | 2033 | 2335 | 1929 | 1931 | 81 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks | 3328 | 2944 | 3827 | 2533 | 125 132 |
New Orleans Pelicans at home
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct2026 | New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers | 3138 | 3518 | 2630 | 2837 | 120 123 |
Atlanta Hawks on the road
| Date | Teams | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct2026 | Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks | 2033 | 2335 | 1929 | 1931 | 81 128 |
| 22 Oct2026 | Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks | 3328 | 2944 | 3827 | 2533 | 125 132 |
Next games
New Orleans Pelicans
- 03 Novat Memphis GrizzliesNO 57%
Atlanta Hawks
- 03 Novat Indiana PacersATL 69%
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks?
- Our model makes Atlanta Hawks slight favourites at 61%, with a projected score of NO 116-120 ATL.
- What is the handicap prediction?
- ATL -4.5 covers 47% of the time on our numbers; ATL is projected to win by about 4.
- Over or under?
- We project 236 total points including overtime. Over 236.5: 50%; under: 50%.
More NBA games
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three games in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.